Greek bonds advanced for the first time in 2 weeks amid speculations that the debt-stricken country will get an international bailout. Market sentiment improved with the euro recovering and USD and JPY falling. Commodity prices also rebounded. On the other side of the Atlantic, US' retail sales data were strong enough to keep investors bullish in the near-term.
WTI crude oil price rallied to 86 in European session (intra-day high: 86.37). The contract dropped over the past 2 days as Greece's woe and oil inventory increased more than anticipated.
Yields on 2-year Greek notes slipped -18 bps after surging over +200 bps in the past 3 weeks as European Commission spokeswoman Amelia Torres said members are 'ready to act' to put in place the financial assistance for Greece. Moreover, Greece planned to announce today the amount of an April 13 auction of Treasury bills. Comments from ECB President Trichet and billionaire investors Soros increased optimism.
At an interview today, Trichet reiterated his stance that a default on Greece 'is not an issue. Regarding the use of the EU-IMF package, the President said 'at this moment in time I don't expect this mechanism to be necessary'.
Soros also said in an interview that Greece 'should not default and there is a solution...There is a need to understand that when there is a rescue effort, which Europe is now putting together, it has got to be at a concession rate of interest, not at the market rate, because the market rate reflects only uncertainties and doubts about the political will to have a rescue'.
In the US, sales at 31 chains soared +9% in March, though maybe followed by a -3% drop in the coming month, according to the International Council of Shopping Center. Easter holiday, mild weather condition and low base in 2009 were key factors boosting sales.
Gold price resumed strength as the dollar weakened. The benchmark contract surged to as high as 1159 earlier today.
SILVER:
Despite edging higher to 18.26, silver's upside moment remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. We'd stay intraday neutral and expect some retreat o 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 17.70) sooner or later. Nevertheless, another rally would still be expected as long as 16.55 support holds. Above 18.26 will target a retest of 18.925/19.50 resistance zone next.
In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Another high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 16.55 support, though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.
GOLD:
Gold's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1159 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and gold should be targeting 1163 resistance next. Break will bring retest of 1227.5 high. On the downside, below 1144.0 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat because staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
WTI crude oil price rallied to 86 in European session (intra-day high: 86.37). The contract dropped over the past 2 days as Greece's woe and oil inventory increased more than anticipated.
Yields on 2-year Greek notes slipped -18 bps after surging over +200 bps in the past 3 weeks as European Commission spokeswoman Amelia Torres said members are 'ready to act' to put in place the financial assistance for Greece. Moreover, Greece planned to announce today the amount of an April 13 auction of Treasury bills. Comments from ECB President Trichet and billionaire investors Soros increased optimism.
At an interview today, Trichet reiterated his stance that a default on Greece 'is not an issue. Regarding the use of the EU-IMF package, the President said 'at this moment in time I don't expect this mechanism to be necessary'.
Soros also said in an interview that Greece 'should not default and there is a solution...There is a need to understand that when there is a rescue effort, which Europe is now putting together, it has got to be at a concession rate of interest, not at the market rate, because the market rate reflects only uncertainties and doubts about the political will to have a rescue'.
In the US, sales at 31 chains soared +9% in March, though maybe followed by a -3% drop in the coming month, according to the International Council of Shopping Center. Easter holiday, mild weather condition and low base in 2009 were key factors boosting sales.
Gold price resumed strength as the dollar weakened. The benchmark contract surged to as high as 1159 earlier today.
SILVER:
Despite edging higher to 18.26, silver's upside moment remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. We'd stay intraday neutral and expect some retreat o 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 17.70) sooner or later. Nevertheless, another rally would still be expected as long as 16.55 support holds. Above 18.26 will target a retest of 18.925/19.50 resistance zone next.
In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Another high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 16.55 support, though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.
GOLD:
Gold's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1159 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and gold should be targeting 1163 resistance next. Break will bring retest of 1227.5 high. On the downside, below 1144.0 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat because staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
