EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4024; (P) 1.4160; (R1) 1.4239.
EUR/USD dives through mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 today and reaches as low as 1.4028 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.4137 minor resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to next medium cluster support level at 1.3737. On the upside, above 1.4137 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery first. But upside should be limited below 1.4334 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.87; (P) 91.16; (R1) 91.54.
No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Recovery from 90.30 might continue but after all, fall from 93.74 is still expected to resume as long as 92.03 resistance holds. Below 90.78 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and further break of 90.30 will bring fall resumption to 87.36 support next. Break there will confirm the bearish case that whole rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. This will also argue that medium term down trend is resuming for a new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 0.9203 will argue that fall from 93.74 is completed and will bring stronger recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 93.74 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor after the consolidations.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6232; (P) 1.6301; (R1) 1.6359.
GBP/USD's decisive break of 1.6209 support affirms that case that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further decline should be seen to retest 1.5829 support first. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.6875 is resuming for 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.6311 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and mixes up the short term outlook.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0351; (P) 1.0406; (R1) 1.0496
At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0506 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed and should target medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590. On the downside, below 1.0418 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1005). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9916 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0347; (P) 1.0417; (R1) 1.0534.
As discussed before, USD/CAD's fall from 1.0744 has completed at 1.0223 already, ahead of 1.0205 key support as expected. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen to 1.0744 resistance first. Break there will also confirm our bullish view that whole consolidation from 1.0851 has finished with three waves down to 1.0223 too. In such case, rise from 1.0205 should be resuming for 1.0851 and beyond. On the downside, below 1.0425 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.0313 resistance turn support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that a medium term bottom is already in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9033; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9203.
AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.9072 overnight but recovers after meeting 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.9100. At this point, though, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 0.9195 minor resistance holds and another fall could still be seen. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 0.8961. On the upside, above 0.9195 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9327 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, the corrective three wave structure of fall from 0.9404 to 0.8734 suggests that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. Break of 0.9404 will confirm medium term rise resumption and should target 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, though, break of 0.8734 support will revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.94; (P) 129.12; (R1) 129.86.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 129.634 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 126.88/127.50 support zone. As discussed before, recent development suggests that price actions from 126.88 are merely consolidation to fall from 138.47 and should have completed at 134.36. Break of 126.88/127.50 will confirm the whole decline from 138.47 has resumed and should target 124.35 support next. On the upside, above 129.63 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited by 131.50 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still bounded in medium term range between 126.88 and 139.21 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, a break of 126.88 support will revive that case that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21 already and down trend from 169.96 is resuming. In such case, we'd expect deeper fall to 112.10 and beyond to resume the long term down trend. On the upside, however, break of 134.54 resistance will revive that case that recent price actions are merely consolidations to medium term rise from 112.10 already and another high above 139.21 should be seen before EUR/JPY tops.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8627; (P) 0.8680; (R1) 0.8710.
EUR/GBP's strong break of 0.8704 support suggests that whole decline from 0.9410 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for next target of 100% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8576 next. On the upside, above 0.8733 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8855 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8704 support argues that whole rise from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already. Also, this indicates that fall from 0.9410 is likely the third leg of the correction pattern that started at 0.9799 and could extend beyond 0.8399 support before the whole correction concludes. On the upside, a break of 0.8855 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign that EUR/GBP has bottomed out. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4708; (P) 1.4739; (R1) 1.4755.
EUR/CHF breaches 1.4722 briefly today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside. Another break of 1.4722 support will indicate that recent fall has resumed and should target 1.4577 key support next. On the upside, however, above 1.4781 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 1.4894/4988 resistance zone. But after all, that break of 1.4988 resistance is needed to indicate that EUR/CHF has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and another fall should be seen after consolidations.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished and revive the case that 1.4577 is still in progress. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.69; (P) 148.47; (R1) 149.38.
No change in GBP/JPY's outlook as it's still bounded in converging range. Intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise cannot be ruled out and above 149.98 will target 150.68/153.21 resistance zone. But even in such case, upside should be limited there to conclude the whole consolidation from 139.96. On the downside, below 147.10 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 145.96 will affirm the case that rise from 139.26, as well as consolidation from 139.96 have completed at 150.68 already. Deeper decline should then be seen to 141.99 support first and then a retest on 139.26 low.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will in turn indicate that rise from 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4024; (P) 1.4160; (R1) 1.4239.
EUR/USD dives through mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 today and reaches as low as 1.4028 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.4137 minor resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to next medium cluster support level at 1.3737. On the upside, above 1.4137 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery first. But upside should be limited below 1.4334 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.87; (P) 91.16; (R1) 91.54.
No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Recovery from 90.30 might continue but after all, fall from 93.74 is still expected to resume as long as 92.03 resistance holds. Below 90.78 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and further break of 90.30 will bring fall resumption to 87.36 support next. Break there will confirm the bearish case that whole rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. This will also argue that medium term down trend is resuming for a new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 0.9203 will argue that fall from 93.74 is completed and will bring stronger recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 93.74 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor after the consolidations.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6232; (P) 1.6301; (R1) 1.6359.
GBP/USD's decisive break of 1.6209 support affirms that case that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further decline should be seen to retest 1.5829 support first. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.6875 is resuming for 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.6311 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and mixes up the short term outlook.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0351; (P) 1.0406; (R1) 1.0496
At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0506 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed and should target medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590. On the downside, below 1.0418 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1005). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9916 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0347; (P) 1.0417; (R1) 1.0534.
As discussed before, USD/CAD's fall from 1.0744 has completed at 1.0223 already, ahead of 1.0205 key support as expected. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen to 1.0744 resistance first. Break there will also confirm our bullish view that whole consolidation from 1.0851 has finished with three waves down to 1.0223 too. In such case, rise from 1.0205 should be resuming for 1.0851 and beyond. On the downside, below 1.0425 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.0313 resistance turn support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that a medium term bottom is already in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9033; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9203.
AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.9072 overnight but recovers after meeting 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.9100. At this point, though, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 0.9195 minor resistance holds and another fall could still be seen. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 0.8961. On the upside, above 0.9195 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9327 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, the corrective three wave structure of fall from 0.9404 to 0.8734 suggests that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. Break of 0.9404 will confirm medium term rise resumption and should target 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, though, break of 0.8734 support will revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.94; (P) 129.12; (R1) 129.86.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 129.634 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 126.88/127.50 support zone. As discussed before, recent development suggests that price actions from 126.88 are merely consolidation to fall from 138.47 and should have completed at 134.36. Break of 126.88/127.50 will confirm the whole decline from 138.47 has resumed and should target 124.35 support next. On the upside, above 129.63 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited by 131.50 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still bounded in medium term range between 126.88 and 139.21 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, a break of 126.88 support will revive that case that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21 already and down trend from 169.96 is resuming. In such case, we'd expect deeper fall to 112.10 and beyond to resume the long term down trend. On the upside, however, break of 134.54 resistance will revive that case that recent price actions are merely consolidations to medium term rise from 112.10 already and another high above 139.21 should be seen before EUR/JPY tops.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8627; (P) 0.8680; (R1) 0.8710.
EUR/GBP's strong break of 0.8704 support suggests that whole decline from 0.9410 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for next target of 100% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8576 next. On the upside, above 0.8733 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8855 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8704 support argues that whole rise from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already. Also, this indicates that fall from 0.9410 is likely the third leg of the correction pattern that started at 0.9799 and could extend beyond 0.8399 support before the whole correction concludes. On the upside, a break of 0.8855 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign that EUR/GBP has bottomed out. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4708; (P) 1.4739; (R1) 1.4755.
EUR/CHF breaches 1.4722 briefly today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside. Another break of 1.4722 support will indicate that recent fall has resumed and should target 1.4577 key support next. On the upside, however, above 1.4781 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 1.4894/4988 resistance zone. But after all, that break of 1.4988 resistance is needed to indicate that EUR/CHF has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and another fall should be seen after consolidations.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished and revive the case that 1.4577 is still in progress. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.69; (P) 148.47; (R1) 149.38.
No change in GBP/JPY's outlook as it's still bounded in converging range. Intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise cannot be ruled out and above 149.98 will target 150.68/153.21 resistance zone. But even in such case, upside should be limited there to conclude the whole consolidation from 139.96. On the downside, below 147.10 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 145.96 will affirm the case that rise from 139.26, as well as consolidation from 139.96 have completed at 150.68 already. Deeper decline should then be seen to 141.99 support first and then a retest on 139.26 low.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will in turn indicate that rise from 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.
