WTI crude oil spiked to as high as 82.47 ahead of the report. However, price sank more than a dollar immediately after the weak results. Both gasoline and heating also tumbled.
Weekly change in inventory as of 01/01/10 Actual Change Market Expectation Previous
Crude oil 327.3 mmb +1.33 mmb -0.50mmb -1.54 mmb
Gasoline 219.7 mmb +3.74 mmb +0.50 mmb -0.37 mmb
Distillate 159.0 mmb -0.23 mmb -1.85 mmb -2.06 mmb
Comparison between API and EIA reports:
API (Jan 1) EIA (Jan 1 )
Actual Inventory Previous Forecast (using API's inventory level) Inventory
Crude oil -2.27 mmb 330.1 mmb +1.70 mmb +3.99 mmb 330 mmb
Gasoline +5.60 mmb 220.0 mmb -1.40 mmb +4.04 mmb 220 mmb
Distillate +0.96 mmb 163.2 mmb -3.50 mmb +3.72 mmb 163 mmb
API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, 76% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.
GOLD REPORT:
With 1107.9 minor support intact, gold's rebound is still in favor to continue for 38.2% retracement of 1227.5 to 1075.2 at 1133.4 first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1169.3 next. On the downside, however, break of 1107.9 minor support will argue that recovery from 1075.2 might have completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.
SILVER REPORT :
Silver's reound from 16.765 extends further to as high as 18.03 so far today and further rise could still be seen as the correction continues. Nevertheless, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 19.50 to 16.765 at 18.455 and resumption of fall from 19.50. On the downside, below 17.40 minor suppor will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 16.765 will target 16.12 support next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 12.435 should have completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this case and should target lower trend line support at 13.88 level. This will also be the another signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too. Sustained break of the lower trend line support will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low.
Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.
OIL REPORT :
Crude oil is still bounded in tight range below 82.0 resistance for the moment and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations could be seen and a deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 77.83 support and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 82.0 will will confirm that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed and should target next key resistance level at 90. However, considering mild bearish divergence condition 4 hours MACD, break of 77.83 will indicate that rise from 68.59 has possibly completed and will turn bias back to the downside and bring deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the strong rally from 68.59 and sustained trading above 55 days EMA argues that whole medium term rise from 2009 low of 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 82.0. Above this 82.0 will target next key cluster resistance level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, we'll continue to look for reversal signal as rise from 33.2, which is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, is expected to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. On the downside, though, break of 68.59 is needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
