18THJAN2010
GOLD WEEKLY FOCUS:
Gold edged higher to 1163 last week but lost momentum ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1227.5 to 1075.2 and turned sideways. With 1119.2 support intact, another rise could still be seen and above 1163 will bring stronger rebound into 1169.3/1227.5 resistance zone. However, upside should be limited there and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1227.5. On the downside, below 1119.2 will suggest that recovery from 1075.2 has completed already and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1075.2 and below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Considering that weekly MACD is staying below signal line, consolidation from 1227.5 is expected to extend further, either in form of sideway consolidation or a deeper pull back to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But after all, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
SILVER WEEKLY FOCUS:
Silver climbed further to 18.925 last week but turned sideways since then. Consolidation from there might extend further initially this week. But still, with 18.055 support intact, rise from 16.675 is still expected to continue. Break of 18.925 will bring rally resumption towards 19.05 high next. On the downside, though, break of 18.055 support will indicate that rise from 16.765 has possibly completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support first.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 12.435 could still be in progress and another high above 19.50 cannot be ruled out. However, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall. So, we'll continue to look for reversal signal on next rise. On the downside, break of 16.765 support will revive the case that silver has topped out in medium term and will bring deeper decline towards lower medium term trend line at 14 level.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
CRUDE OIL WEEKLY FOCUS:
Crude oil reversed after edging higher to 83.95 and fell sharply to close at 78.00 last week. The development indicates that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall could be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46. but downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. Above 80.69 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 83.95 resistance first. Further break of 83.95 high will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. we assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
GOLD WEEKLY FOCUS:
Gold edged higher to 1163 last week but lost momentum ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1227.5 to 1075.2 and turned sideways. With 1119.2 support intact, another rise could still be seen and above 1163 will bring stronger rebound into 1169.3/1227.5 resistance zone. However, upside should be limited there and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1227.5. On the downside, below 1119.2 will suggest that recovery from 1075.2 has completed already and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1075.2 and below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Considering that weekly MACD is staying below signal line, consolidation from 1227.5 is expected to extend further, either in form of sideway consolidation or a deeper pull back to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But after all, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
SILVER WEEKLY FOCUS:
Silver climbed further to 18.925 last week but turned sideways since then. Consolidation from there might extend further initially this week. But still, with 18.055 support intact, rise from 16.675 is still expected to continue. Break of 18.925 will bring rally resumption towards 19.05 high next. On the downside, though, break of 18.055 support will indicate that rise from 16.765 has possibly completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support first.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 12.435 could still be in progress and another high above 19.50 cannot be ruled out. However, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall. So, we'll continue to look for reversal signal on next rise. On the downside, break of 16.765 support will revive the case that silver has topped out in medium term and will bring deeper decline towards lower medium term trend line at 14 level.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
CRUDE OIL WEEKLY FOCUS:
Crude oil reversed after edging higher to 83.95 and fell sharply to close at 78.00 last week. The development indicates that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall could be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46. but downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. Above 80.69 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 83.95 resistance first. Further break of 83.95 high will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. we assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
