EUR/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4703; (P) 1.4728; (R1) 1.4745;
Break of 1.4701 support suggests that recovery from 1.4635 is already completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Break of 1.4635 will bring decline resumption towards next key support level at 1.4577. On the upside, above 1.4579 will bring another round of rebound to 1.4808 resistance and above. Nevertheless, we'd still expect strong resistance near to 1.5007 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
USD/CAD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0542; (P) 1.0591; (R1) 1.0618;
USD/CAD's break of 1.0638 minor resistance indicates that pull back from 1.0720 has likely completed at 1.0544 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Break of 1.0720 will bring rally resumption to 1.0744 resistance first. As discussed before, break there will confirm that whole correction pattern from 1.0851 has already finished at 1.0223 and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0223 to 1.0720 at 1.0530 and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. Break of 1.0851 will confirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0205, 1.0223). In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. Also, in such case, we'll tentatively treat rise from 1.0205 as resumption of the whole up trend from 2007 low of 0.9056 and focus on the structure of the rise from 1.0205 for confirmation.
EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3845; (P) 1.3935; (R1) 1.3984;
EUR/USD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for key cluster support at 1.3737 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 1.4025 resistance is needed to indicate that EUR/USD has made a bottom. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0564; (R1) 1.0630;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.0640 might extend further. Another fall cannot be ruled out but downside is expected to be contained by 1.0367 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0640 should target 100% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.0721 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0963). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.28; (P) 90.77; (R1) 91.48;
No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Choppy recovery from 89.13 might extend further but still, fall from 93.74 is expected to continue as long as 91.86 resistance holds. Below 90.07 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 89.13 will confirm fall resumption to 87.36 support next. As discussed before, break of 87.36 will also confirm the bearish case that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already and that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.86 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.18 and 55 weeks EMA at 93.79 Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5819; (P) 1.5944; (R1) 1.6012;
GBP/USD's break of 1.5829 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6875 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further fall should be seen to 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.5918 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some recovery. But another fall is still expected as long as 1.6067 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4703; (P) 1.4728; (R1) 1.4745;
Break of 1.4701 support suggests that recovery from 1.4635 is already completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Break of 1.4635 will bring decline resumption towards next key support level at 1.4577. On the upside, above 1.4579 will bring another round of rebound to 1.4808 resistance and above. Nevertheless, we'd still expect strong resistance near to 1.5007 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
USD/CAD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0542; (P) 1.0591; (R1) 1.0618;
USD/CAD's break of 1.0638 minor resistance indicates that pull back from 1.0720 has likely completed at 1.0544 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Break of 1.0720 will bring rally resumption to 1.0744 resistance first. As discussed before, break there will confirm that whole correction pattern from 1.0851 has already finished at 1.0223 and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0223 to 1.0720 at 1.0530 and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. Break of 1.0851 will confirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0205, 1.0223). In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. Also, in such case, we'll tentatively treat rise from 1.0205 as resumption of the whole up trend from 2007 low of 0.9056 and focus on the structure of the rise from 1.0205 for confirmation.
EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3845; (P) 1.3935; (R1) 1.3984;
EUR/USD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for key cluster support at 1.3737 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 1.4025 resistance is needed to indicate that EUR/USD has made a bottom. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0564; (R1) 1.0630;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.0640 might extend further. Another fall cannot be ruled out but downside is expected to be contained by 1.0367 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0640 should target 100% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.0721 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0963). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.28; (P) 90.77; (R1) 91.48;
No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Choppy recovery from 89.13 might extend further but still, fall from 93.74 is expected to continue as long as 91.86 resistance holds. Below 90.07 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 89.13 will confirm fall resumption to 87.36 support next. As discussed before, break of 87.36 will also confirm the bearish case that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already and that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.86 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.18 and 55 weeks EMA at 93.79 Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5819; (P) 1.5944; (R1) 1.6012;
GBP/USD's break of 1.5829 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6875 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further fall should be seen to 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.5918 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some recovery. But another fall is still expected as long as 1.6067 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
