GOLD
Gold recovers further to 1116 so far and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA. But still, another fall cannot ruled out with 1119.5 resistance intact. Nevertheless, note that as long as 1088.4 support holds, rise from 1044.5 is still expected to continue. Above 1119.5 minor resistance will flip intraday back to the upside for retesting 1145.8. Break will target 1163 resistance next. However, sustained break of 1088.5 will indicate that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for another fall towards this low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1088.5 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion
SILVER
No change in silver's outlook as it's bounded in tight range below 1.7665. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall could be seen to trend line support (now at 16.42) as correction from 17.665 continues. Note that rise from 14.65 is still expected to continue as long as 15.61 support holds. Above 17.665 will target 161.8% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 18.708. However, note that firm break of 15.61 support will indicate that rise from 14.65 has completed. The three wave structure will revive that case that recent fall from 19.50 is still in progress for another low below 14.65.
In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Hence, above high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil's break of 80.61 support indicates that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next and break will target 6.18% retracement at 74.72. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 83.16 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect another fall as correction from 83.16 extends.
In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.
Gold recovers further to 1116 so far and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA. But still, another fall cannot ruled out with 1119.5 resistance intact. Nevertheless, note that as long as 1088.4 support holds, rise from 1044.5 is still expected to continue. Above 1119.5 minor resistance will flip intraday back to the upside for retesting 1145.8. Break will target 1163 resistance next. However, sustained break of 1088.5 will indicate that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for another fall towards this low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1088.5 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion
SILVER
No change in silver's outlook as it's bounded in tight range below 1.7665. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall could be seen to trend line support (now at 16.42) as correction from 17.665 continues. Note that rise from 14.65 is still expected to continue as long as 15.61 support holds. Above 17.665 will target 161.8% projection of 14.65 to 16.56 from 15.61 at 18.708. However, note that firm break of 15.61 support will indicate that rise from 14.65 has completed. The three wave structure will revive that case that recent fall from 19.50 is still in progress for another low below 14.65.
In the bigger picture, as silver is still trading well above medium term rising trend line, rally from 8.4 might not be over yet. Fall from 19.50 might be just a correction that's completed with three waves down to 14.65. Hence, above high above 19.50 could be seen. Nevertheless, there is no change in the broader view that medium term rise from 8.4 is merely part of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 (2008 high). Hence, even in case of a new high above 19.50, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as silver enters into 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 15.61 support though, will revive the bearish case that silver has already topped out and will turn focus back to medium term trend line support instead.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil's break of 80.61 support indicates that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next and break will target 6.18% retracement at 74.72. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 83.16 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect another fall as correction from 83.16 extends.
In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.
