3rd Quarter GDP data released today for the U.S. was 3.5%, beating estimates of 3.2%. Much of the growth for the quarter was government related, such as the cash-for-clunkers program that accounted for 1.66% of GDP growth. However, investors took the bait that the economy is finally moving out of recession to launch stocks ahead. The positive economic news drove investors away from the low-risk dollar and toward other, foreign currencies believed to be higher-risk. The dollar fell against all but the Japanese yen in trading.
All three NYC-based indices soared on Thursday on the release of the better than expected GDP data. The S&P 500 (^INX) rose the most, by 2.25%, or 23.48 points, to 1,066.11, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) close behind at 2.05% or 199.89 more points for the day and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.84% or 37.84 points to reach 2,097.55. Gold soared for the day, rising $16.50 per ounce, or 1.60% to $1046.40, partially reversing a five session losing streak. The price of a barrel of oil also gained, by $2.41 per barrel to $79.87.
Our forecasts for currency trading on Friday are very mixed. We predict that the euro will slightly lose to the U.S. dollar but not before a pair of mid-day peaks, while the dollar will steadily lose to the Japanese yen through smooth trading. We also predict that the dollar will gain against the British pound and the Canadian dollar, which is likely dependent on British home prices and Canadian GDP data. The dollar is also forecast, however, to lose against the Swiss Franc through volatile trading with an intra-day low support level of 1.017 Francs.
CURRENCY FORECASTS
For each pair of graphs, the left graph depicts Thursday’s currency forecast and actual currency data while the right graph depicts Friday’s currency forecast. Green is Thursday’s forecast; red is Thursday’s actual trading data; and blue is Friday’s forecast. The time is GMT +1, also known as the time in Western Europe or 6 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time. In other words, the forecasts extend from 6:00 PM Thursday to 5:59 PM Friday Eastern Standard Time. We list the data based on military time. Thus, our graphs begin with 18:00 or 6:00 PM today and extend until 17:59 the next day.
Our forecasts are again powered by iPredict’s powerful Microsoft Excel-integrated forecasting specialty software.
We predict out 24 hours of data based on the previous 12 weeks of hourly foreign exchange rate and precious metal’s data as provided by the Russian stock market news and information website Forexite.com.
