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My number one gold stock thanks Obama & Geithner


Dear Investor,

You have seen gold skyrocket to over $1,000 an ounce.

But this is just the beginning, according to leading financial experts. UBS says that gold will climb to at least $2,500.

And precious metals experts like Peter Schiff and James Dines are predicting it won't stop until it hits $5,000!

Why? Because of...
■A record-setting budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2009
■A national debt that now exceeds $11.8 trillion (and that's not counting unfunded obligations such as Social Security, Medicare and federal pensions-which total an estimated $104 trillion!)
■An inflated money supply that has more than doubled since September 2008-sending the dollar to new lows against the euro and other currencies
■And escalating insanity in Washington that is catapulting the U.S. toward hyperinflation
The end result of all this will be more inflation, more unemployment and more turmoil. And the only surefire way to protect your family and your wealth is to make sure you have a significant position in gold.


Not coins. Not bullion. But select gold stocks.Let me tell you about one of these gold stocks that I recently recommended...and still believe could deliver you a 2,344% rise in the next 12-24 months.


Constitution Mining Corp. (CMIN.OB) has soared in the past 19 weeks...and after hundreds of hours of research, I believe it could skyrocket 2,344% in the next 12-24 months.

You'll see that on July 9, 2009, I recommended that you invest in Constitution Mining Corp. (CMIN.OB) when it was selling for just $0.57. Today-just 19 weeks later-it's $1.19.

Constitution Mining Corp. (CMIN.OB) has soared in the past 19 weeks...and after hundreds of hours of research, I believe it could skyrocket 2,344% in the next 12-24 months.

If you had invested when I first recommended Constitution Mining, you could have already made 108.8% on your money-enough to turn $10,000 into $20,880.

I expect Constitution Mining to go much higher-perhaps even to $29.08 a share over the next 12 to 24 months.

In fact, if you get in now, you could turn $10,000 into $244,400 or potentially more over that time period.

What makes me so sure? Cold, hard facts... Hundred of hours of research turned me
from skeptic to believer.I make that recommendation with the utmost confidence. You see, when I first heard about Constitution Mining, I was skeptical. And I looked at it with my usual “don't trust, but verify” approach-an approach that served me well in my more than 30 years as a Swiss investment banker. And an approach that has saved my grateful clients millions of dollars over the years.

So when I started digging into Constitution Mining, I immediately began looking for a reason-any reason-to reject it as an investment and to move on to greener pastures.

Yet, the more I dug, the more I became convinced that Constitution Mining was on to something big. In fact, after many hundreds of hours of research, analysis and consultation with top mining experts and geologists, I've come to the conclusion that this company has made an epic gold discovery that could...

■Hold as many as 50 million to 75 million ounces of gold-worth at least
$57.5 billion at today's prices.
■Bring early investors a return of 657%...1,413%...or even as much as 2,344%.
Those numbers are based on results from the company's most recent 500 drill holes. And they've been confirmed by Dr. Vicente Méndez, an independent geologist I brought in to verify the drilling results and geologic reports about the discovery.

And the nice thing is, the company only has to confirm a small fraction of that 50 to 75 million ounces for you to make a killing. Much smaller finds have already produced windfall profits for savvy investors who got in early.2,075% profits on a smaller discovery!For example, after Kinross Gold announced its Fort Knox gold discovery, the stock soared 2,075%. Investors who got in early made 20 times their money.

Or take Barrick Gold. After Barrick discovered its famous 15-million-ounce mine in 1987, early-bird investors made an astonishing 12,440% on their money, turning $10,000 into $1,254,000.


Even a small amount of gold could help you make 6 times your money.No, I can't promise you're going to make a million dollars on this one stock. However, I can tell you that even a relatively small amount of gold could help you at least triple your money. Anything you make on top of that is gravy.For example, let's say Constitution Mining is only able to take 700,000 ounces from the site-less than 1% of the 75 million ounces the site may actually hold.

With gold selling for $1,150 an ounce at this writing, a 700,000-ounce discovery could generate $805 million in revenue. Subtract the $185 per-ounce cost of extracting the gold ($129.5 million) and Constitution Mining gets $675.5 million.

Divide that $675.5 million by 75 million shares outstanding, and Constitution Mining's share price climbs to $9.01 per share...for a potential gain of more than 657%.

That's enough to turn $10,000 into $75,700. And that's if the project holds only a fraction-less than 1%-of the 75 million ounces drilling results seem to indicate it holds.

However, get this: If gold goes to $2,000 as the federal deficit soars and inflation explodes to double digits over the next year, you could make nearly twice as much money, as Constitution Mining's profit per ounce soars.

Why 14 times your money is much more likely. I deliberately used a small number-700,000 ounces-to make it clear just how profitable this discovery could be for you. But the fact is, if I thought for one minute that 700,000 ounces was all Constitution Mining would find, I wouldn't spend much time thinking about this stock.

You see, I'm looking for special situations that could earn my subscribers at least 10 times their money. And that's exactly what I think you're in for with Constitution Mining.

Let me give you another illustration: Suppose the property actually holds 1.4 million ounces. When you go through the same calculations above, you could end up with a share price of $18.01 per share! That's a gain of $1,413%-more than 14 times your money and enough to turn $10,000 into $151,300.

And if the price of gold doubles, so do your profits!Now let's look at one last scenario-still involving a relatively small amount of gold, say 2.26 million ounces. In my mind, this is practically a slam dunk-and it's enough to send the stock soaring to $29.08 per share using the calculations above.

That's a phenomenal gain of 2,344%, which could turn your $10,000 into a $244,400 fortune!In other words, you could make 23 times your money, even if this mine turns out to be a huge disappointment, and only produces a tiny fraction of what it's estimated to hold. Now that's what I call a margin of safety.

If you've missed out before,now is the time to cash in.This isn't the first time my inner circle has uncovered a big winner like this.Take Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA), which my inner circle recommended and invested in at $2.75 a share......only to see it soar to $25.20 over the next 2 years, turning every $10,000 invested into $91,600! Wouldn't that be nice?

Or Silver Standard Resources, which better than tripled investors' money in just 3 months!

However, those kinds of profits only come to investors who get in early-before the mass of investors come piling in or a big company swoops in and buys the whole thing lock, stock and barrel.And that could happen sooner rather than later. You see, over the next few weeks I'll be sharing my findings on Constitution Mining with my extensive network of Swiss investment bankers and their clients. They're hungry for a great gold stock, and Constitution Mining fits the bill nicely.


With Swiss Confidential in your corner, you'll have the tools you need to begin rebuilding your wealth over the next 12 to 24 months...in spite of this economic crisis and the disturbing inflation that lies ahead.


You still have time to get in on the ground floor with Constitution Mining. But if you wait too long, the easy profits will be gone. And be sure to follow my buy, hold and sell recommendations on Constitution Mining in the pages of Swiss Confidential.

Remember, I spent more than 30 years as a Swiss investment banker. In those years, I became privy to the closely guarded fortune-building and asset-protection secrets that the Swiss have kept to themselves for centuries. These strategies have helped the world's wealthiest people grow even wealthier.And now they can do the same for you with Constitution Mining and the other recommendations you'll discover in Swiss Confidential.


The Marañón and Santiago Rivers bring tons of gold down from the gold-rich Andes Mountains—filling the Peruvian Gold Sands with treasure for millions of years. The region is also home to Newmont Mining’s Yanacocha gold mine, Gold Fields’ Cerro Corona Mine and Kinross Gold’s Aurelian deposit

DISCLAIMER:
This Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice.I assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.







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Nifty And Bank Nifty Future - What To Expect On 1st


Develop a third eye, see the real things only:
I really love one word of Brett N. Steenbarger that half of what we see in the market isn't real. Suppose you see the Nifty futures rise a full point in a short period of time on solid volume. Seeing the market rally, you jump aboard, only to have the entire move retrace.

What happened?

In a nutshell, that move you saw on the screen wasn't real. Yes, the index rose on buying, but what you didn't see on the screen was that the very same buyers of the index were selling the Nifty futures. Once the futures moved a full point higher, exceeding fair value, they then sold the futures against a basket of stocks in the index to bring the futures and cash back into line. The moves were real, in the sense that they genuinely cost traders money. They're not real, in the sense that buying or selling did not reveal bullish or bearish tendencies on the parts of large market participants. So you need to develop a third eye to see the real things in the market


Now what happened today? Dubai’s government said it hasn’t guaranteed the debt of Dubai World, the state-controlled holding company struggling with $59 billion in liabilities, and that creditors must help it restructure. Dubai shares tumbled and Abu Dhabi’s stock index today fell the most in at least eight years on the first trading day since the announcement.


What will be the effect on Indian market? We are entering December, a month of holidays. I hope you will want to play it safe in December. 100% sure if you just follow this site for Nifty and Bank Nifty you need not to see any other site for the same. Yesterday written in Nifty future above we will see clear run up till 5052 or more. Don't be astonished, dont waste time on finding the answer how I knew it beforehand, instead just check the charts once crossed 5018 today, it made a high of 5072.50. Written if stays above 8878 Bank Nifty future will zoom till 9013/9078 or even 9146. See it to believe it, Bank NF made a high of 9128 before crashing in the end. Is it any more a rocket science that the subscribers have made 600+ points in the last two Bank Nifty trades in the last 3 sessions alone?

Now what to expect tomorrow? Nifty future above 5008 is safe for bulls. Will again touch 5052/5067/5080 on the higher side. Important resistance exists at 5067 and support exists at 4937. Now if breaks 4937 and even breaks 4917, then??

Bank NF upside first hurdle 9013, if crosses with volume then will move till 9098/9125/9146. But if breaks 8878, then?? You need to subscribe to the Nifty pack, for full market hour guidance.


To get all updates in market hours, join me live in Nifty/Bank Nifty Future trading in my live trading room. See the Premium Services page for more details.

Nifty future important levels for Tuesday, 1st December:
R3 5149 R2 5111 R1 5067 PP 5029 S1 4985 S2 4946 S3 4902.
Bank Nifty future important levels for Tuesday, 1st December:

R3 9242 R2 9185 R1 9085 Pivot Point 9029 S1 8930 S2 8873 S3 8774
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Daily Report: Dollar Weakens as Asian Stocks Rebound, Yen Steadily in Range


Dollar retreats further today as Asia markets stabilizes from last week's sell off with Nikkei rebounded over 2.9%. Yen is relatively steady and pares earlier losses into European session. UAE central bank said it "stands behind" the debts owed to foreign banks by Dubai World while Abu Dhabi central bank also said a special liquidity scheme would be available to overseas banks. The news eased concern of about a possible default by state-owned Dubai World and investors sentiments were somewhat improved.

BoJ Governor Shirakawa said today that they bank is paying "due attention to the effects of the recent rapid appreciation of the yen on business sentiment." Also, he reemphasized that BoJ will "act promptly and decisively if judged necessary to ensure the stability of financial markets." Over the weekend, Prime Minister Hatoyama ordered cabinet ministers to include in a supplementary budget for fiscal 2009 measures aimed at coping with the surging yen and declining Japanese stocks. There will also be a meeting between Shirakawa and Hatoyama as early as Wednesday for a discussion on risks to the fragile recovery in the Japan economy. But after all, yen pays little attention to the rhetoric and remains steady in range.

Dollar's outlook remains quite mixed for the moment, except that it's clearly bearish against yen. As noted before, EUR/USD was kept above 1.4801 support last week and thus gave no indication of topping yet. Subsequent strong rebound from 1.4828 extends further today and is possibly on the way to challenge 1.5143 high. Similar situation was found in dollar index which rebound was limited below 75.88 support and a retest on 74.19 low cannot be ruled out. Developments in GBP/USD and AUD/USD both still favor more downside. However, the fall from 1.6875 and 0.9404 are not displaying five wave structures yet and could, in the end, turn out to be corrections only. Hence, firstly, we'll stay neutral in EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for the moment and bearish on GBP/USD and AUD/USD. However, secondly, we'll turn bearish on dollar in generally in case of a new high in EUR/USD, which should be accompanied by a new low in the dollar index.



On the data front, Japanese manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.3 in November. Industrial production rose less than expected by 0.5% mom in October. Housing starts dropped less than expected by -27.1% yoy in October. UK Gfk consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated from -13 to -17 in November. Looking ahead. main focus will be on Eurozone CPI, which is expected to turn positive to 0.4% yoy in November. Canadian GDP is expected to returned to 1.0% annualized growth in Q3. Canadian IPPI and RMPI as well ass US CHicago PMI will also be featured.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8960; (P) 0.9047; (R1) 0.9149; More

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8945 extended further to as high as 0.9192 today so far but lost some momentum after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. While some more recovery cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited below 0.9321 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9050 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and further break of 0.8945 will target 0.8915 support and then 161.8% projection of 0.9404 to 0.9060 from 0.9321 at 0.8764 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading below the medium term channel support indicates that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has made a top at 0.9404 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Further break of 0.8915 support will confirm this case and bring sizeable correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, however, note that a break of 0.9321 resistance will indicate that fall form 0.9404 has completed. The corrective three wave structure will indicate that AUD/USD's up trend is not completed yet and another high should then be seen above 0.9404 before AUD/USD tops.



Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks -- --
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Nov 52.3 -- 54.3
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Nov 0.30% -- -0.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 0.50% 2.50% 1.40% 2.10%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Oct P -15.10% -13.40% -18.90%
0:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Nov -17 -11 -13
1:00 JPY BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to Speak in Nagoya -- --
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct -27.10% -33.20% -37.00%
9:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 57.0K 56.2K
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.40% -0.10%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.4 -0.10%
13:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized Q3 1.00% -3.40%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Oct 0.40% -0.50%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct 2.80% -1.10%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 53 54.2
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Stocks ready for post-holiday bump


Futures turn higher as Dubai crisis eases. Modest holiday sales could push Wall Street up at the opening bell

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks were set to open modestly higher Monday as fears eased over the Dubai debt shakeup and despite early reports of tepid holiday sales figures for the Thanksgiving weekend.

Dow Jones industrial average, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 futures were modestly higher. Futures measure current index values against their perceived future performance, though they're not always an accurate forecast of stock activity after the opening bell.

Friday's big selloff, triggered by the Dubai debt crisis, pushed the three leading stock indexes down slightly for the week.

Dubai: The United Arab Emirates said Sunday it would guarantee banks in Dubai, where a crisis has emerged concerning efforts to delay payments on nearly $60 billion in debt.

The Dubai situation led to a global selloff late last week. While markets in the region were down sharply Monday, the first trading day after a 4-day holiday, Asian markets rebounded. Tokyo's Nikkei index gained nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rallied 3-1/4%.(Dubai stocks plummet)

European markets, which steadied Friday in the wake of the Dubai crisis, were lower in afternoon trading Monday.

"We're seeing a much more muted response to what's going on in Dubai," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.

Retail: Initial results for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend indicate that the average shopper was spending less at the nation's stores.

In a report issued Sunday, the National Retail Federation said the average shopper spent $343.31 over the holiday weekend, down from $372.57 last year. Overall sales rose to $41.2 billion from $41 billion, with the number of shoppers climbing to 195 million from 172 million over the four-day span.

Hogan noted that despite the lower per-shopper spending, retailers spent less money promoting sales this year.

"They'll be more profitable," he said. "Right now, things are looking much better on a year-over-year basis."

Merchants were hoping to do a little better Monday, a day called Cyber Monday, when shoppers take to the Internet at home and at work. (Cyber Monday: Hope for disappointed stores).

Other markets: The dollar, which had rebounded off recent lows last week as a safe haven in the Dubai debt crisis, retreated early Monday against the euro, yen and U.K. pound.

Oil gained 9 cents to $76.13 a barrel. Gold eased from its recent peaks, down $2.20 to $1,172 an ounce.



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INIAN STOCK MARKET / Market snaps two-day slide on robust Q2 GDP data


Key benchmark indices surged, ending a two-day losing streak, as the latest data showed the economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected 7.9% pace in the second quarter. However, intraday volatility was high. The barometer index BSE Sensex fell below the psychological 17,000 mark soon after a sharp surge took it above that level in afternoon trade. Today's rally was on the back of lower turnover.

Asian stocks surged after United Arab Emirates central bank on Sunday, 29 November 2009, offered additional liquidity to local and international banks in the UAE and reassured investors it "stands behind" the lenders. Also boosting the sentiments, global banks outside the Gulf said they were not heavily exposed to Dubai debt. The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 294.21 points or 1.77%, off 100.69 points from the day's high and up 270.47 points from the day's low.

Government data released today showed the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.9% in Q2 September 2009, from 7.1% in the previous year, shattering forecasts as stimulus measures boosted demand and manufacturing activity surged. The economy had registered a 6.1% growth in the first quarter.

The bulk of the recovery was led by a 9.2% growth in manufacturing, while mining and construction activities also expanded by 9.5% and 6.5%, respectively. But agriculture continued to me a major drag with a mere 0.9% growth.

Reacting to the GDP figures Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission said economic growth forecast for the year to March 2010 may have to be revised upwards as data released today showed a faster expansion in September quarter. He added that there was no serious concern on inflation as of now and conventional monetary policy was unlikely to be effective in curbing food price rise.

Subir Gokarn, a central bank deputy governor said today that the recovery of the economy was gaining strength but December quarter numbers could be lower than the 7.9% annual growth recorded in the September quarter. Gokarn also said food price inflation was a matter of concern and authorities would keep a watch on capital inflows.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today said he expects the economy to grow around 7% in the fiscal year ending March 2010. During the weekend, the finance minister said that Dubai's debt crisis would not affect India much, but the government is keeping a close watch and will act to prevent any fallout.

India's fiscal deficit during the April to October 2009 period was Rs 2.45 lakh crore ($52.7 billion), or 61% of the full-year target, the government said in a statement on Monday. Tax receipts were Rs 2.14 lakh crore and total expenditure was Rs 5.37 lakh crore for the first seven months of 2009/10 fiscal year.

Coming back to stocks, the market breadth was strong today. A total of 26 shares from the 30-member Sensex pack advanced. Metal stocks were at the forefront of the rally on fresh buying after the recent steep fall. Telecom pivotals extended Friday's gains on fresh buying. Cement and IT shares also gained on fresh buying. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries retraced from the day's high. Banking shares also retraced from day's high on profit booking.

Intraday volatility on the bourses was high. The market pared gains in morning trade after an initial rally triggered by firm Asian stocks. The market surged later on robust Q2 GDP growth data. The market struck fresh intraday high in afternoon trade as buying demand for index pivotals intensified. The market pared gains later as European stocks dropped. The market strengthened again in mid-afternoon trade. Profit booking in late trade capped gains in the market. The market once again pared gained again in late trade.

European markets were mostly lower today, 30 November 2009, weighed by financial and oil stock. Key benchmark indices in Germany, and France were down 0.70% and 0.90% respectively. However, UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.35%. Trading in US index futures showed the Dow could fall 24 points at the opening bell today, 30 November 2009.

Earlier in the global day Asian stocks rose after the United Arab Emirates offered emergency assistance to banks in Dubai, soothing the market fears about a looming debt default. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were up by between 1.22% to 3.25%. However, Singapore's Straits Times index fell 1.09%

Chinese shares surged after Beijing late Friday said it will maintain an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy next year, allaying investor concerns over a tightening policy bias.

Japanese manufacturing activity fell to a four-month low in November 2009, a survey showed today, suggesting growth in production is moderating as the effect of global stimulus measures fades. The Nomura/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.3 in November 2009 from 54.3 in October 2009. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the fifth month in a row but declined for the second consecutive month from a three-year high set in September.

Japan's industrial production rose less than economists estimated in October 2009. Factory output increased 0.5% last month from September 2009, the slowest pace in eight months, the Trade Ministry said today, 30 November 2009, in Tokyo.

Dubai's Nakheel, developer of man made islands in the shape of palms, said on Monday it has asked for three of its listed Islamic bonds, or sukuk, on Nasdaq Dubai to be suspended until it is in a position to inform the market more fully. Nakheel is one of two flag ship companies, along with Dubai World, which announced last week that they would seek a debt standstill agreement from creditors, until May 2010.

United Arab Emirates' (UAE) central bank said on Sunday, 29 November 2009, it would back the country's lenders from a possible default by Dubai World. Abu Dhabi-based UAE central bank said financial institutions will be able to borrow using a special facility tied to their current accounts.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it welcomes the announcement by the central bank of the UAE to make available a special additional liquidity facility to back local and international banks operating there. The IMF said it will continue to monitor the situation following the unexpected announcement by the government of Dubai regarding a standstill on the debt of Dubai World and its Nakheel subsidiary, which has had an adverse impact on financial markets.

The UAE is a "strong resource-based economy," the fund also said. "We look forward to further clarification by the authorities towards a cooperative mechanism to address the issues between these debtors and their creditors," the IMF said

Markets from Asia to the US fell last week after Dubai World announced on 25 November 2009 that it was seeking to delay loan repayments. Dubai World, a state-owned holding company struggling with $59 billion of debt and other liabilities, said it would seek a standstill agreement with creditors and an extension of loan maturities until at least 30 May 2010. That raised the prospects of rising loan losses for UAE and foreign banks.

Trading in US index futures indicated a flat opening of US stocks on Monday, 30 November 2009. US index futures pared initial strong gains

In US on Friday, 27 November 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 154.48 points, or 1.48%, to 10,309.92. The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index slid 1.72% to 1,091.49 and the Nasdaq Composite index declined 37.61 points, or 1.73%, to end at 2,138.44.

Back home, many companies were quick to play down their exposure to Dubai on Friday, 27 November 2009. Engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro said it had exposure to Dubai of $20 million to $25 million. India's largest listed realty firm, DLF, and second ranked Unitech said they had no exposure to Dubai, and leading private bank ICICI Bank said it had no material exposure. While Indian banks are heavily focused on the domestic market, they are active in handling remittances from overseas workers. State-run Bank of Baroda (BoB) has exposure of 7-8% of its loan book in the United Arab Emirates. BoB said the assets are good performing assets

Meanwhile, India and Canada have reached a landmark agreement on civil nuclear cooperation after months of hectic negotiations, paving the way for supply of Canadian atomic technology, equipment and uranium to India after a gap of 34 years. The negotiations on the deal were concluded at a meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper during the weekend.

Canada, the world's largest producer of uranium, is the eighth country to have reached a civil nuclear agreement with India since the Nuclear Suppliers Group lifted the 34-year-old ban on India to join the global nuclear trade in September last year.

Meanwhile, the government has reportedly decided to crackdown on corporates and individuals that have defaulted on payment of their self-assessment in the year in a bid to boost direct tax collections that are well below the target for the year.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), the apex direct tax body that administers corporate tax, personal income tax and wealth tax, has asked its field officials to crack down on companies that have not paid self-assessed tax for the year. In a letter sent last week, the CBDT has asked its field forces to investigate about Rs 90,000 crore of tax exemption claimed by various corporate taxpayers on account of various tax holidays in their returns.

The board's letter to the field comes in the backdrop of a dismal 3.92% growth in direct tax collections in first seven months from April to October 2009. Corporate tax collections grew by 4.59% in same period, meaning that the rate of growth has to be over 18% for the rest of the year for CBDT to achieve this target for the year 2009-10.

There are concerns that a glut in share sales may suck liquidity from the secondary market. A foreign brokerage firm expects Indian firms to raise roughly $70 billion through share sales over the next three years. The brokerage expects stake sales in state-run firms will account for $10-$15 billion of the total funds to be raised. The upcoming auction of third-generation mobile spectrum will also spur potentially billions of dollars in equity raising, although not necessarily from the public markets.

Indian companies have raised about $18 billion in equity thus far this year to repay high cost debt or to fund expansion plans. Last year, Indian firms raised $7.2 billion in equity.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Duvvri Subbarao on Friday 27 November 2009 said an assessment of the impact of Dubai's debt problems was needed before deciding on a response. India's financial integration with the global economy is deeper than its trade integration, the central bank governor said.

Subbarao said that there was no benign policy option and that inflationary pressures were building up. The government on Thursday said it was concerned about rising prices, especially of food articles, and would take appropriate fiscal and monetary measures to contain them. "We are deeply concerned when prices go high," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Thursday. "It will have to be done by us: control of monetary policy, control of credit policy, control of fiscal policy."

The six core industries grew 3.5% in October 2009 from a year earlier, slower than upwardly revised annual growth of 4.1% in September 2009, government data showed on Friday. During April-October, the first half of the 2009/10 fiscal year, output rose 4.7% from 3.3% in the same period in 2008/09. The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7% of India's industrial output.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 294.21 points or 1.77% to 16,926.22. The Sensex opened 23.74 points higher at 16,655.75, also its day's low. It gained 394.90 points at the day's high of 17,026.91 in afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 90.95 points or 1.84% to 5,032.70. Nifty December 2009 futures were at 5023, at a discount of 9.70 points as compared to the spot closing. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) was Rs 67,547.79 crore, sharply lower than Rs 96,075.18 crore on Friday, 27 November 2009.

The BSE Sensex had lost 566.94 points or 3.41% in the past two trading sessions on worries about Dubai's debt problems. Debt worries in Dubai sparked fears that the global financial markets have not healed properly since last year's crisis and that the Dubai problem could expose these weaknesses.

The Sensex gained 1,029.94 points or 6.47% in November 2009. A deluge of global liquidity has boosted stocks across the globe this year. Governments and central banks around the world have injected trillions of dollars in the past one year to pull the world out of a most severe recession since the 1930s Great Depression. The Sensex is up 7278.91 points or 75.45% in calendar year 2009, as on 30 November 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 8765.82 points or 107.41% as on 30 November 2009.

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.63%, underperforming the Sensex. The BSE Small-cap index gained 2.08%, outperforming the Sensex.

All sectoral indices on BSE ended higher. The BSE Metal index (up 3.66%), the BSE Teck index (up 2.55%), the BSE IT index (up 2.10%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE FMCG index (up 0.73%), the BSE Healthcare index (up 0.87%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.04%), the BSE Power index (up 1.05%), the BSE Bankex (up 1.23%), the BSE Realty index (up 1.28%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.51%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.55%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.60%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.72%), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was strong. On BSE, 2062 shares advanced as compared with 761 that declined. A total of 72 shares remained unchanged.

Today's rally came on the back of lower turnover. The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4311 crore as compared with Rs 5,353.31 crore on Friday, 27 November 2009.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 26 gained while only 4 of them declined. NTPC (up 0.92%), HDFC (up 2.25%), and Tata Power (up 1.76%), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Telecom pivotals extended Friday's gains on fresh buying. India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel surged 5.69% to Rs 299.80 and was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. The company's chairman Sunil Mittal in a television interview on Friday said the company has no plans to cut SMS charges as of now and also ruled out any global acquisitions at present.

India's second largest cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communication (RCom) rose 3.06%. On Friday, the company had slashed SMS charges, further heating up an ongoing price war in the telecom market.

RCom said it would charge customers just 1 paisa per SMS in a new bill plan. The company also launched another plan where customers can send unlimited text messages by paying Re 1 per day. Currently mobile operators charge Re 1 for local SMSes.

Metal stocks extended early gains on fresh buying. India's largest private sector aluminium maker by sales Hindalco Industries surged 3.81%. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India allowed the company to enhance foreign institutional investors (FII) limit to 40%.

Sterlite Industries (up 3.23%), Tata Steel (up 5.54%), Hindustan Zinc (up 8.01%), Sesa Goa (up 1.57%), Steel Authority of India (up 2.96%), JSW Steel (up 5.21%), advanced

Jindal Saw gained 6.44% after the company fixed 11 December 2009 as the record date for a 5-for-1 stock split. The company announced the record date after market hours on Friday, 27 November 2009.

Kalyani Steels spurted 5% after one of the promoter group companies hiked its stake in the firm. The company made this announcement during trading hours today, 30 November 2009.

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC) spurted 10.38%. As per recent reports, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) is raising around Rs 900 crore by placing 5% equity stake with a clutch of financial institutions and Gujarat government-owned public sector enterprises (PSEs) including IDFC, LIC, State Bank of India and PSEs like Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC), Gujarat State Investment (GSIL), Gujarat Industrial Development Board (GIDB) and others.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rose 2.73% on reports it has found traces of a new oil reserve in Gujarat in western India that could raise its onshore oil production by 20%. The new hydrocarbon structure is likely to produce at least 1 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of oil. This could be the largest onshore oil find for ONGC in the last one decade.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitialisation Reliance Industries (RIL) advanced 1% to Rs 1059.40. But the stock retraced from the day's high of Rs 1078. RIL has reportedly offered between US$10 billion and US$12 billion for acquiring LyondellBasell Industries.

Oil exploration stocks gained following rise in crude oil aided by a weaker US dollar. Cairn India (up 2.98%), and Oil India (up 2.92%), rose after US crude for January 2010 delivery rose 50 cents to $76.55 a barrel today, 30 November 2009, retracing some of Friday's $1.91 losses. Rise in crude oil prices will boost realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms

Banking shares slipped from day's high on profit booking. Bank stocks had surged earlier in the day following buoyant economic data.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank gained 0.88% to Rs 858.70 after striking day's high of Rs 884. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 0.49% to Rs 1756.25, retracing from day's high of Rs 1786. India's largest bank by branch network State Bank of India fell 0.42% to Rs 2233, after striking a day's high of Rs 2290

IT stocks rose on fresh buying on reports IT firms are on a hiring spree following revival in demand. India's largest software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) gained 2.29%. TCS reportedly plans of employing about 25,000 new people for the year 2010-11.

India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies rose 2.22%. As per reports, the company Infosys last month raised its hiring target to 20,000 for the fiscal year that ends in March 2010, up from its earlier forecast of 18,000.

India's third largest software services exporter Wipro rose 0.74%. The partially convertible rupee was trading at 46.49/50 per dollar, higher than 46.64/65 on Friday. A firm rupee negatively impacts operating profit margin of IT firms as the sector derives a lion's share of revenue from exports.

Geometric rose 4.16% after one of the promoter group companies hiked its stake in the firm. The company made this announcement during trading hours today, 30 November 2009.

India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors surged 5.16%. The company is reportedly planning to produce hybrid versions of its low cost car Nano to join in the environment-friendly trend.

The company reported a better-than-expected performance on a consolidated basis, thanks to a pick-up in sales volumes on a sequential basis for the Land Rover brand, coupled with reduced raw material costs. On consolidated basis, Tata Motors reported a net profit of Rs 21.78 crore in Q2 September 2009, compared to a loss of Rs 941.8 crore a year earlier.

Consolidated total income declined 8.20% to Rs 21506.94 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The results were announced at the fag end of the trading session on Friday, 27 November 2009.

Other auto stocks saw mixed trend. India's largest small car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.58% whereas India's top tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra gained 1.64% on reports car makers plan to raise prices in two phase from next year following rise in input costs.

India's largest bike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors lost 1.71% to Rs 1715.90 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack

Cement shares rose following recent reports of hike in prices by Rs 8-10 per 5 kg bag in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Sanjay Ladiwala, the president of Cement Stockists and Dealers Association of Mumbai was quoted as saying that the price rise was due unavailability of railway wagons.

ACC (up 0.38%), Ambuja Cements (up 3.31%), UltraTech Cement (up 3.39%), Madras Cement (up 1.47%), and India Cement (up 1%), advanced

Select real estate shares extended Friday's recovery. Housing Development & Infrastructure (up 4.24%), Indiabulls Real Estate (up 1.84%), Orbit Corporation (up 1.22%), parsvnath Developers (up 0.53%), and Anant Raj Industries (up 0.97%), gained

However India's largest real estate firm by sales DLF fell 0.29%. The company said on Friday it had no exposure to Dubai. Unitech's slipped 0.50% despite saying it had no exposure to Dubai on Friday.

India's largest engineering & construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro (L&T) gained 1.36%. L&T during market hours today announced the formation of a joint venture with the state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) for making nuke forgings, a crucial component in the construction of nuclear reactors. NPCIL would hold 26% in the venture and L&T the remainder.

Nitco fell 1.15% after the company reported net loss of Rs 8.27 crore in Q2 September 2009 as compared to net profit of Rs 9.74 crore in Q2 September 2008. The company announced the results during trading hours today.

Shriram EPC rose 3.29% after the company announced signing of a memorandum of understanding with China based NorthWest Electric Power Design Institute for executing thermal power projects. The company made the announcement during market hours today, 30 November 2009.

Construction stocks saw an across the board rally on fresh buying. India's biggest builder of dams Jaiprakash Associates surged 5.17% after its price target was raised to Rs 288 from Rs 211 earlier by a foreign brokerage firm.

Hindustan Construction Company (up 1.99%), Gammon India (up 0.56%), Unity Infraprojects (up 5.45%), IVRCL Infrastructures (up 3.88%) and IRB Infrastructures (up 4.33%), gained.

Valecha Engineering jumped 3.14% after the company's board approved raising funds upto $20 million. The company made this announcement after trading hours on Friday, 27 November 2009.

The construction sector grew 6.5% in the September quarter versus 9.6% in the year-ago quarter, government data showed today.

Tea stocks saw an across the board rally after Tea Board of India chairman Basudeb Banerjee was quoted as saying that tea production in India will be marginally lower this year than in the year before due to erratic weather.

Dhunseri Tea (up 9.34%), Goodricke Group (up 9.92%), Warren Tea (up 6.17%), McLeod Russel (up 7.12%), Assam Company (up 1.74%), and Tata Tea (up 1.60%), surged.

Jay Shree Tea and Industries rose 2.94% on reports the company is close to announcing its first overseas acquisition in Uganda.

Adani Enterprises rose 0.11% after the company fixed 11 December 2009 as the record date for a liberal 1:1 bonus issue. The company announced the record date after market hours on Friday, 27 November 2009.

Span Diagnostics jumped 10% after the company bagged an order worth Rs 22.96 crore. The company announced the new order win after market hours on Friday, on 27 November 2009.

Tata Steel was the top traded counter on the BSE with a turnover of Rs 230.14 crore followed by Suzlon Energy (Rs 176.14 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 170.35 crore), HDIL (Rs 163.56 crore), and Thinksoft Global Solutions (Rs 114.51 crore).

Cals Refineries led the volumes charts on BSE clocking volume of 3.81 crore shares followed by Suzlon Energy (2.27 crore shares), IFCI (1.62 crore), Unitech (1.14 crore shares) and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (58.21 lakh shares).

Suven Life Sciences was locked at 5% upper limit after the company secured three European patents on new chemical entities. The company made this announcement during trading hours today, 30 November 2009.



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India would become one of the three largest economies of the world with the US and China.


Discerning a dramatic shift in the world’s economic balance of power, a US think tank has projected that by 2050 India would become one of the three largest economies of the world with the US and China.

Growing at a projected rate of 6.19 percent between 2009 and 2050, India would grow most rapidly among the G-20 group of world’s leading economies the making Indian economy 97 percent as large that of the US in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), two experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote.

In an article on ‘The G-20 in 2050′, in the November 2009 issue of International Economic Bulletin of the think tank they noted that in dollar terms, India’s GDP is expected to increase by 16 times from the current $1.1 trillion to $17.8 trillion by 2050.

‘The world’s economic balance of power is shifting dramatically,’ noted experts Uri Dadush, the director of Carnegie’s

International Economics Programme and Bennett Stancil a Junior Fellow in the Programme.

By 2050, the United States and Europe, long the traditional leaders of the global economy, will be joined in economic size by emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, they wrote.

China will become the world’s largest economy in 2032, and grow to be 20 percent larger than the United States by 2050, the two experts predicted suggesting ‘over the next forty years, nearly 60 percent of G20 economic growth will come from Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Mexico alone.’

Over the next 40 years, the G20 GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent, rising from $38.3 trillion in 2009 to $161.5 trillion in 2050, in real US dollar terms.

Nearly 60 percent of this $123 trillion dollar expansion will come from Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico (BRIC+M), Dadush and Stancil projected.

‘These five economies will grow at an average rate of 6.1 percent per year, raising their share of G20 GDP from 18.7 percent in 2009 to 49.2 percent in 2050.’

China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050. Their total GDP, in real US dollar terms, will be over 70 percent more than that of the other G20 countries combined, they said.

In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion-the current world GDP-but the wide disparity in per capita GDP among these three will persist.

Of the G20 countries, India is predicted to grow most rapidly, but its current modest size will prevent it from surpassing either China or the United States in real US dollar terms. India’s PPP GDP, however, will be 97 percent as large as that of the United States by 2050.

A growing population – India is expected to become the world’s most populous nation in 2031 – and an average exchange rate appreciation of 0.9 percent per year will push annual GDP growth to an average of 6.2 percent, the two experts said.

India’s US dollar GDP will balloon to $17.8 trillion in 2050, sixteen times its current $1.1 trillion level, Dadush and Stancil predicted.

Despite impressive GDP growth in the developing world, relative per capita GDP (or wealth) will remain low. By 2050, the five largest economies, in both real US dollar and PPP terms, will include three of the G20’s poorest-India, China, and Brazil, they said.

In 2009, by contrast, seven of the G20’s largest eight members were among its richest, in US dollar terms.
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How to Become Expert in Forex Trading


Update yourself on frequently used terms in the Forex Trading world, such as ‘intraday’ and ‘overnight position,’ which relates to the trading times.
Study the economic and political market trends and stay up to date on current events. The best Forex traders have very good knowledge on trends and other economic traits. This can take some time, but it’s rewards are great.
Invest in a bot. If you don’t want to go deep into studying the trends and such, you can buy a bot that recognizes trends and advises when to buy and sell. You want a bot that is frequently updated to optimize trading strateg
The last and final step is to give yourself time to get used to forex trading. It may take a long time to understand the Foreign Exchange.
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How to Become Expert in Forex Trading


1. Prior selecting a broker you should have to do proper online research about broker, through your friends and colleagues. Find a well established brokerage firm for investing in to stock market.

2. Work with the firm’s investment guru /consultant to customize your investments that suit to your risk profile. If you have 15 to 20 years or more to retire, then you may be able to be much more aggressive with your investment approach.If you are very near to retirement age you should adapt defensive approach for investing your capital.

3. Once you have established your good relation with a broker, be sure that you will receive monthly or quarterly statements from them that will give updates on your investment’s performance. If required then you can make adjustments to your portfolio.

4. Decide in advance with your financial consultant an annual or other time period in which you will sit down and discuss together to review your portfolio performance.

5. Review your profile always to see if your risk profile has changed, and make the necessary adjustments in your investments.

6. Be very clear about your investment objective before you invest your money.

7. Make sure which kind of trader you are such as Day Trader, Swing Trader, Short term Investor, Medium term Investor or Long term Investor.
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DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY


Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)



The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4830 level and was capped around the $1.5015 level. The market was quite volatile on account of a few factors. First, traders remained skittish and attentive to the Dubai World situation. Dubai’s largest corporate entity on Wednesday asked creditors for a six-month standstill agreement on debt repayments. The entity’s total liabilities aggregate around US$ 60 billion and there are some concerns that other emerging market debtors could experience similar problems through contagion. Premia for emerging market debt in the fixed income market have increased over the past two days. The U.S. dollar has really been on the back-end on a trading strategy that has been long risk and short the greenback for several months. The paring of risk that has been associated with the Dubai situation could positively impact the U.S. dollar. Second, traders are closely watching the yen and any potential Japanese response to the yen’s recent appreciation. Third, liquidity was reduced during the North American session on account of yesterday’s Thanksgiving Day holiday. Data released in the U.S. today saw October building permits revised to -4.2% from -4.0%. Data to be released on Monday include the November Chicago purchasing manager index. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Ordonez said the “euro interbank market…has suffered greatly” as a result of the global financial crisis. Data released in the eurozone today saw November industrial confidence rose to -19 from -21 while November economic confidence improved to 88.8 from 86.1. Also, November consumer confidence increased to -17 from -18 in October. Additionally, the October import price index rose 0.5% m/m and was off 8.1% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4720 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥87.00 figure and was supported around the ¥84.85 level. The pair rallied higher from multi-year lows dating to 1995 as traders booked profits on their short yen positions. Nervousness increased regarding the possibility of yen-selling intervention by Japanese and foreign monetary authorities. Finance minister Fujii noted “this kind of situation is sustained, I think that it would be something abnormal. It would be possible for us to take” action. Fujii added he is “extremely nervous and is watching the market carefully…there’s no doubt the market has moved too far in one direction.” While some dealers do not believe the Japanese government will conduct yen-selling intervention at current levels, Japanese exporters are finding it more difficult to grapple with the yen’s ascent. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirano reported “Excessive moves are undesirable. The government will monitor the impact of the currency market on the economy. We'll make sure that the yen rise will not lead to a second bottom in the economy, and the upcoming extra budget will be compiled with such risk in mind.” Data released in Japan overnight saw the October overall retail sales index off 0.9% m/m, better-than-expected, while October core consumer price inflation was off 2.2% y/y. These data suggest deflation could continue in Japan for quite some time. Also, the October jobless rate improved to 5.1% from September’s reading of 5.3% while October all household spending was up 1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Finally, Japan’s trade deficit printed at ¥126.81 billion in the first ten days of November, off 2.1% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.22% to close at ¥9,081.52. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥126.85 level and was capped around the ¥130.15 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥139.25 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥84.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8264 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8270. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor this reported the yuan will become a “more attractive currency” and added the central bank will increase surveillance of hot money flows. Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun this week said China will “increase the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate while maintaining stability in the market,” adding the increase will be “incremental and balanced.” Zhang added China is moving toward a system “that is market-based and is a managed floating mechanism with respect to a basket of currencies.” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will meet European Central Bank President Trichet and Ecofin head Juncker on 29 November. China’s banking regulator informed Chinese lenders they must comply with capital requirements or risk sanctions. There is increasing speculation China will strengthen its strict capital requirements.



The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6270 level and was capped around the $1.6520 level. Sterling has come off about 300 pips over the past three trading days as dealers have reacted to the Dubai debt market shock. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen reported wholesale reform is needed if the U.K. banking system is going to mount a sustainable recovery. Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling downgraded the U.K.’s 2009 economic growth outlook today and now sees shrinkage of 4.75%, worse than the previous -3.75% forecast. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6155 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.9060 level and was capped around the ₤0.9135 level.

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4957 1.5015, 1.4828
USD/ JPY 86.78 87.01, 84.83
GBP/ USD 1.6490 1.6519, 1.6270
USD/ CHF 1.0072 1.0176, 1.0020
AUD/USD 0.9056 0.9135, 0.8945
USD/CAD 1.0627 1.0747, 1.0579
NZD/USD 0.7085 0.7165, 0.7022
EUR/ JPY 129.79 130.14, 126.86
EUR/ GBP 0.9071 0.9133, 0.9058
GBP/ JPY 143.08 143.48, 139.26
CHF/ JPY 86.16 86.40, 84.22

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR / USD USD / JPY
L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85

GBP / USD USD / CHF

L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885

AUD / USD USD / CAD

L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355

NZD / USD EUR / JPY

L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
L2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75

EUR / GBP EUR / CHF

L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
L2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880

GBP / JPY CHF / JPY

L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60

SCHEDULE

Friday, 27 November 2009 all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Germany October import price index (-0.9% m/m)
N/A Germany October import price index (-11.0% y/y)
N/A Eurozone November Ifo business climate survey
0745 France November consumer confidence (-35)
0900 Italy October hourly wages
1000 Eurozone November economic confidence (86.2)
1000 Eurozone November business climate indicator (-1.78)
1000 Eurozone November consumer confidence (-18.0)
1000 Eurozone November industrial confidence (-21.0)
1000 Eurozone November services confidence (-7.0)
1030 CH November KOF leading indicator (1.45)
1330 Canada Q3 current account (-C$ 11.2 billion)


DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. We assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

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Derivatives Action indicates cautiousness going ahead


THE WEEK THAT WAS
The long build up in the December 2009 series was completely reversed during the expiry day, and there would be immense volatility in the current week with downward bias

After having an excellent November series during which the market rose 255 points to close at 5005.55 on the expiry date of the November series, the market tumbled on 27th November 2009 mainly due to the concerns from the Dubai debt restructuring related concerns and its consequent impact on the Indian Banking, real estate and the construction majors. The Nifty corrected 63.80 points to close at 4941.75 on Friday, the 27th November 2009.
All through-out the month the market fared well although on the expiry day of the November series aggressive short positions were being witnessed both in the Nifty futures as well as most of the front-line stock futures for the December series. On this day the Nifty December series ended with discount of 25 points to the underlying. Such heavy short build-up in the December series shows cautious outlook going ahead. The nifty December contract added 30.77 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.51 crore shares. Similar was the trend in the stock futures as well. Some of the front-lines like Reliance Industries added 12.62 lakh shares in OI in the December series. So does in Tata Motors and Tata Steel, where the OI in the December series rose by 25.02 lakh shares and 27.10 lakh shares respectively. Overall the December series stock future OI increased 29.51 crore shares on 26th November 2009. The rollover for the nifty futures was 71% and the market-wide rollover was 83%. Such aggressive OI addition was due to fresh short positions being created in the Nifty and the stock futures.
Short position continued to get build-up in the December series on Friday as well as the market on this day nose-dived before recovering a major portion during the second half of the day. The Nifty December series further added 9.90 lakh shares in OI to take the total OI to 2.61 crore shares. Similar was the case in case of several stock futures as well. The overall December series stock futures added 15.58 crore shares in OI during Friday, although Reliance shed 76.8 thousand shares in OI whereas Unitech shed 57.78 lakh shares in OI. The total OI for December contract of both these scrip's stood at 1.05 crore shares and 5.30 crore shares respectively. RNRL and ICICI Bank added 2.22 lakh shares and 4 lakh shares respectively in OI to take the total OI to 2.95 crore shares and 1.26 crore shares respectively. Hindalco, Ambuja Cement, IDFC and JP Associates also added significant OI in the December series contracts during Friday.
Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 150.67 crore shares, thus gaining by 6.09 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. A major portion of the addition was done by stock options which added 3.39 crore shares in OI. (See table OI breakup
Significant amount of calls were written on the expiry date especially in the 5000, 5100 and 5200 strike December series, simultaneously aggressive put buying was witnessed in the 4800 and 4900 strikes. However on Friday 4800, 4900 and 5000 strike calls witnessed aggressive buying as the call wrote during the previous day on the 5100 and 5200 strikes were covered. Also on Friday there was some fresh buying in 4700, 4800 and 4900 strike puts. These positions seem to be a coupled position, which is being taken along with other positions in futures or stocks. Thus any inference may be premature.

The OI in the 4900 and 5000 strike call stood at 24.29 lakh shares and 33.68 lakh shares while the OI in the 4800 and 4900 strike puts stood at 40.96 lakh shares and 28.82 lakh shares respectively.

The Friday's reaction seems to be an over-reaction although the F&O activity during the November expiry day indicates cautiousness. Earlier during the previous week and also during the earlier part of the current week there was long build-up in the December series which has completely reversed during the expiry day. One thing is for certain, that there would be immense volatility with down-ward bias.
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INDIAN MARKETS END-SESSION


(Sensex slides 3.4% in two days on Dubai debt problems)
Key benchmark indices staged a strong comeback in second half of the day's trading session after suffering a severe setback in the first half. A recovery in European stocks from an initial slide and news that China has pledged to stick with a pro-growth stance in 2010, aided the recovery. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 222.92 points or 1.32%, up 421.57 points from the day's low and off 86.97 points from the day's high.

The barometer index has lost 566.94 points or 3.41% in the past two trading sessions on worries about Dubai's debt problems. Debt worries in Dubai sparked fears that the global financial markets have not healed properly since last year's crisis and that the Dubai problem could expose these weaknesses.

Trading in US index futures showed the Dow could fall 203 points the opening bell today, 27 November 2009. At one point of time, the Dow futures were down more than 300 points. US financial markets were closed on Thursday, 26 November 2009, for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Index heavyweights Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Bharati Airtel played lead role in the strong intraday recovery on the domestic bourses today. Auto, banking and infrastructure shares rebounded from early lows. But the market breadth was weak.

Intraday volatility was high. The market cut losses after a sharp setback in early trade. However, the intraday rebound proved short-lived. The market weakened again later. Fresh selling pulled the market to fresh intraday low later. The market staged a solid intraday rebound in mid-afternoon trade.

Dubai said on Wednesday, 25 November 2009, it wanted creditors of Dubai World and property group Nakheel to agree a debt standstill as it restructures Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth. Dubai World had $59 billion in liabilities as of August 2009.

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), of which Dubai is a member, are separated by the Arabian Sea and closely linked by the millions of Indians who work in the region. Indians make up about 40% of the UAE's population, accounting for 10% to 12% of India's inward remittances, according to report by a foreign brokerage. But Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said on Friday Dubai debt worries are unlikely to impact remittances from the region.

The UAE was the second-biggest export destination for India during the nine months through December 2008, accounting for $14.6 billion, or 11.15% of India's total - a share that has been rising and closing in on the United States. But Trade Minister Anand Sharma said India's economy is unlikely to be hard-hit by the situation in Dubai as India is a very large economy. Meanwhile, total exports from India fell 6.6% in October 2009 over the previous year, Sharma said today.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D Subbarao on Friday 27 November 2009 said an assessment of the impact of Dubai's debt problems was needed before deciding on a response. India's financial integration with the global economy is deeper than its trade integration, the central bank governor said.

Many Indian companies were also quick to play down their exposure to Dubai on Friday, 27 November 2009. Engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro said it had exposure to Dubai of $20 million to $25 million. India's largest listed realty firm, DLF, and second ranked Unitech said they had no exposure to Dubai, and leading private bank ICICI Bank said it had no material exposure. While Indian banks are heavily focused on the domestic market, they are active in handling remittances from overseas workers. State-run Bank of Baroda (BoB) has exposure of 7-8% of its loan book in the United Arab Emirates. BoB said the assets are good performing assets
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Nifty And Bank Nifty Future


What To Expect On 27th NovemberFinally another eventful expiry after a long time. I always tell you all that I prefer the market when it does something. Today again it has shown great intraday swing, so it was a great day for Nifty or Bank Nifty traders. First check what I have written yesterday at Nifty And Bank Nifty Future - What To Expect On 26th November?.

Written in Nifty future bulls are there only above 5125, that level never came. Written below 5080 it is weak, and will touch 5052/5035 in intraday panic. It did. For serious traders I also publish daily Pivot levels. Now how to trade them, are given in my previous articles. If you see price not stopping even in daily R3 or S3, just watch for next weekly level for the immediate support resistance. Just see today Nifty future could not hold daily S3 of 5024, means it will stop only at next weekly support. Weekly S1 was at 4982, now if you have not noticed the day low at 4978.15 it is definitely your fault. My subscribers were holding Nifty 5100 PE from 17 rupees and saw it zoomed 100 rupees in extreme market movement.

In Bank Nifty future written below 9295 we will see retesting of 9251/9227/9147. We saw all them achieved in hours only, it crashed to 9056 in extreme weakness. My subscribers were short from 9265 levels, and got intraday gains of 200+ points. I hope normal blog readers also could make decent gains in Nifty or Bank Nifty future.
Now what to expect tomorrow? Nifty future above 5008 can zoom upto 5044/5052. Now if can't cross 5009 and trades below 5000, we are definitely going to see 4979/4971. Now if 4971 gets broken be prepared for a bloodbath till 4937/4919. I dont want to disclose, what is waiting above 5052 or below 4919. More details will be available to the Nifty pack subscribers.
Bank Nifty future above 9099 will touch 9147 in no time. But then?? Below 9013, we will see 8963/8878. But then?? Intraday updates will be available to the subscribers. Till it can't sustain above 9147, sell on every intraday rise.
Nifty future important levels for Friday, 27th November:
R3 5213, R2 5160, R1 5083, Pivot Point 5030, S1 4953, S2 4901, S3 4823.
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DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY


Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)

The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4960 level and was capped around the $1.5140 level. The dollar rallied hard across higher-yielding currencies such as the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar following an announcement from Dubai corporate real estate giant Dubai World that it is seeking a six-month moratorium and possible restructuring on US$ 60 billion in debt. Credit default swaps on emerging market names widened substantially and investors moved sharply away from higher-yielding assets. Liquidity was reduced during the North American session for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and will normalize overnight. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poors heavily downgraded the debt of Dubai entities. There is a fear that contagion could spill over to other markets and areas of the world and this could result in further U.S. dollar appreciation. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Weber called for prudence in trying to jump-start the asset-backed debt securities market. Weber also noted Bundesbank wants Germany to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012 as opposed to the government’s plan of 2013. The European Central Bank is not expected to change monetary policy when it convenes next Thursday. Data released in Germany today saw the November provisional consumer price index off 0.2% m/m and climb 0.3% y/y. Also, it was reported that EMU-16 October lending to businesses and households fell to a new record low, off 0.8% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4720 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥86.30 level and was capped around the ¥87.50 level. The pair fell to its lowest level since July 1995 as traders doubted the resolve of Japanese and U.S. authorities to arrest the yen’s ascent. Minutes from Bank of Japan Policy Board’s meeting on 30 October were released overnight and they “expressed the view that, when judged necessary, the bank should employ appropriate measures--including reutilization of special funds-supplying operations to facilitate corporate financing--in a flexible and timely manner. All other members agreed with this view.” This statement suggests emergency lending facilities will be reinstated as necessary, mostly to counter deflationary pressures. Regarding deflation, the central bank added “Many members said that attention should continue to be paid to the risk that, in a situation where the substantial slack in the economy was likely to persist, prices might become weaker than expected if firms' and households' medium- to long-term inflation expectations declined.” Deflation prospects have worsened since the October meeting and many traders believe BoJ will resume commercial paper purchases and corporate bond purchases after the current planned expiry at the end of December. Finance minister Fujii reported the Chinese yuan remains too weak and reiterated he supports U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s dollar-supportive comments. The big question on traders’ minds is if and when Japan will conduct unilateral intervention to support the yen and whether or not they have enough political capital to encourage the U.S. and European officials to sell the yen through actual intervention. Fujii added “We are currently monitoring (the yen's appreciation), and I think now is the time to be vigilant.” Most BoJ-watchers believe the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged through at least most of 2010. BoJ’s Policy Board recently predicted core consumer prices will decline 1.5% in the year ending March 2010, decline 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2011, and decline 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2012. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.62% to close at ¥9,383.24. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥129.50 level and was capped around the ¥132.30 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥142.50 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥85.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8270 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8290. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor yesterday reported the yuan will become a “more attractive currency” and added the central bank will increase surveillance of hot money flows. Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun this week said China will “increase the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate while maintaining stability in the market,” adding the increase will be “incremental and balanced.” Zhang added China is moving toward a system “that is market-based and is a managed floating mechanism with respect to a basket of currencies.” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will meet European Central Bank President Trichet and Ecofin head Juncker on 29 November. China ’s banking regulator informed Chinese lenders they must comply with capital requirements or risk sanctions. There is increasing speculation China will strengthen its strict capital requirements.
Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)
(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range )
EUR/ USD 1.4984 1.5141, 1.4958
USD/ JPY 86.48 87.48, 86.28
GBP/ USD 1.6493 1.6725, 1.6466
USD/ CHF 1.0055 1.0069, 0.9918
AUD/USD 0.9112 0.9321, 0.9092
USD/CAD 1.0605 1.0619, 1.0449
NZD/USD 0.7142 0.7330, 0.7127
EUR/ JPY 129.58 132.30, 129.52
EUR/ GBP 0.9084 0.9128, 0.9037
GBP/ JPY 142.65 146.21, 142.54
CHF/ JPY 86.02 87.82, 85.94
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD USD/ JPY
L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85
GBP/ USD USD/ CHF
L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885
AUD/ USD USD/ CAD
L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355
NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY
L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75
EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF
L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880
GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY
L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60
SCHEDULE
Thursday, 26 November 2009

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)



N/A Germany November consumer price index (0.1% m/m)

N/A Germany November consumer price index (0.0% y/y)

N/A Germany November CPI, harmonized (0.1% m/m)

N/A Germany November CPI, harmonized (-0.1% y/y)

0200 NZ October M3 money supply (2.7% y/y)

0900 Eurozone October M3 money supply (1.8% y/y)

1100 UK CBI quarterly distributive trades survey

1700 France October total jobseekers

2145 NZ October trade balance (-NZ$ 424 million)

2350 Japan October jobless rate (5.3%)

2350 Japan October household spending (1.0% y/y)

2330 Japan November Tokyo-area consumer price index (-2.4% y/y)

2330 Japan November Tokyo CPI, ex-food and energy (-1.4% y/y)

2330 Japan October consumer price index (-2.2% y/y)

2330 Japan October CPI, ex-food and energy (-1.0% y/y)

2350 Japan October large retailers’ sales (-5.6%)

2350 Japan October retail trade (0.9% m/m)

2350 Japan October retail trade (-1.3% y/y)

Friday, 27 November 2009

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)



N/A Germany October import price index (-0.9% m/m)

N/A Germany October import price index (-11.0% y/y)

N/A Eurozone November Ifo business climate survey

0745 France November consumer confidence (-35)

0900 Italy October hourly wages

1000 Eurozone November economic confidence (86.2)

1000 Eurozone November business climate indicator (-1.78)

1000 Eurozone November consumer confidence (-18.0)

1000 Eurozone November industrial confidence (-21.0)

1000 Eurozone November services confidence (-7.0)

1030 CH November KOF leading indicator (1.45)

1330 Canada Q3 current account (-C$ 11.2 billion)



DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained
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INDIAN CAPITAL MARKETS/Sensex sheds 2% on weak global equities


Key benchmark indices witnessed sharp losses in a highly volatile trading session as world stocks fell. NSE's futures & options segment clocked record turnover as traders rolled over positions from November 2009 series to December 2009 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month November 2009 contracts today, 26 November 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 344.02 points or 2%, off 347.58 points from the day's high and up 46.06 points from the day's low. The S&P CNX Nifty fell below the psychological 5,000 mark before regaining that level at the fag end of the trading session. The Sensex fell below the psychological 17,000 level.

World stocks fell as news of Dubai asking for a creditor standstill at Dubai World and Vietnam's currency devaluation, increased investors' aversion to risk.

Selling pressure was conspicuous in banking, IT and oil & gas stocks. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries turned ex-bonus today, 26 November 2009. The company had announced a liberal 1:1 bonus. The market breadth was weak with small and mid-cap stocks under selling pressure.

Intraday volatility was high ahead of the expiry of the near-month derivatives contracts. The market cut losses after an initial slide. However, the intraday recovery proved short-lived. The market weakened in early afternoon trade as Asian stocks fell. The market cut losses after hitting a fresh intraday low in early afternoon trade. The market tumbled in mid-afternoon trade.

As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions was about 64% while market wide rollover stood at 66% at the end of Wednesday's (25 November 2009) trade. In individual stocks, Hindustan Unilever, Cairn India, India Cements, Maruti Suzuki and Power Grid Corporation have witnessed high rollover.

Chinese stocks tumbled on Thursday, led by losses in bank stocks, as investors fled the market amid mounting worries that the government may take steps to clamp down on surging asset prices. Banks fell on concerns about shrinking lending and a possible need to raise funds next year to shore up their capital.

Meanwhile, Dubai's financial health has come under scrutiny after a major, government-owned investment company asked for a six-month delay on repaying its debts. Dubai World, which has total debts of $59bn (£35bn), is asking creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May next year. Dubai World has also appointed global accountancy group Deloitte to help with its financial restructuring. The company has been hit hard by the global credit crunch and recession. It was due to repay $3.5bn of its debts next month.

The request for a delay in repayments led to major credit ratings agencies downgrading a number of state-backed companies. Following six years of rapid growth, the Dubai economy has slumped since the second half of 2008. The Dubai government said in a statement that the request to delay debt repayments also applied to property developer Nakheel, a Dubai World subsidiary.

The announcement raised concern about the once-booming Gulf region's financial health and added to general nervousness in financial markets about the real state of the world economy at a time when investors are also seeking to lock in 2009 profits.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's stock market tumbled after the nation's central bank devalued the currency by around 5% against the US dollar and raised interest rates by a percentage point to 8% from 1 December 2009.

Closer home, the food price index rose 15.58% and primary article index rose 11.04% in 12 months to 14 November 2009, data released by the government today showed. The fuel price index declined 1.51%.

The worst dry spell in nearly four decades and floods in parts of the country have hurt farm output and pushed up food prices. C. Rangarajan, Chairman of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Economic Advisory Council, recently said food price inflation is the biggest worry for the economy in near term and a strong rise in food prices could prompt monetary action. Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 1.34% in October 2009 from a year earlier

Meanwhile, in a bid to converge Indian accounting norms with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2011, the government on Wednesday said all concerns of the industry would be addressed before convergence takes place. However, the industry fears that there are ambiguous issues which demand more clarity. The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India has still not legally notified the syllabus containing IFRS and the tax implications of the convergence are still not known.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not in favour of consolidation in the banking industry even as the finance ministry has started laying the ground for fewer and larger public sector banks. RBI deputy governor KC Chakrabarty said on Wednesday consolidation in the sector can wait and the need of the hour is to make available banking services to more Indians. Earlier in the day, RBI governor D Subbarao suggested the need for banks to strengthen their capital base to usher in better risk management.

Meanwhile, the government is likely to postpone a plan to recapitalise state-owned banks to the next financial year, as some key approvals to the process are yet to come. The World Bank had sanctioned a loan of $2 billion to the Indian government to recapitalise 15-16 state-owned banks.

Another set of reports indicated the government plans to move a bill early next year to amend a banking law for allowing foreign investors in private banks to have voting rights in proportion to their shareholdings. Currently, voting rights of foreign investors are capped at 10%.

Trade minister Anand Sharma said on Wednesday that the government has no plan to further liberalise foreign investment in retail sector. India, currently, does not permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in multiple-brand retailers, restricting global firms like Wal-Mart Stores and Carrefour from selling directly to customers in the country. Foreign holding in single-branded retailers is capped at 51%.

There are concerns that a glut in share sales may suck liquidity from the secondary market. A foreign brokerage firm expects Indian firms to raise roughly $70 billion through share sales over the next three years. The brokerage expects stake sales in state-run firms will account for $10-$15 billion of the total funds to be raised. The upcoming auction of third-generation mobile spectrum will also spur potentially billions of dollars in equity raising, although not necessarily from the public markets.

Indian companies have raised about $18 billion in equity thus far this year to repay high cost debt or to fund expansion plans. Last year, Indian firms raised $7.2 billion in equity.

European markets were trading weak today, 26 November 2009, weighed by banking and mining shares. Key benchmark indices in UK, France and Germany were down 1.86% to 2.05%.

Asian markets dropped, led by Japanese exporters as the yen firmed to near 14-year highs against the dollar. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were down by between 0.22% and 3.62%.

Stocks in Hong Kong and China dived weighed by a disappointing market debut of China Minsheng Bank Corp. The bank which raised $3.9 billion in the world's fifth-largest initial public offering of 2009, fell 1% in its Hong Kong trading debut.

Concerns of potential cash calls by the sector on expectations the government may lift capital adequacy ratios or reserve requirements for larger state lenders next year after a lending boom aggravated the slide.

China needs far-reaching structural reforms to root out industrial overcapacity, which is doing untold damage to domestic growth and the global economy, according to a report released on Thursday. Excess capacity is a long-standing scourge in China, but its impact has become ever more destructive as a result of the global financial trauma, said the study by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

US stocks climbed on Wednesday, 25 November 2009 as investors welcomed a bigger-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 30.69 points, or 0.29%, to 10,464.40 and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 4.98 points, or 0.45% to 1,110.63. Both these indices settled at a fresh 13-month high. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 6.87 points, or 0.32%, to 2,176.05.

In economic data, the new claims for unemployment posted biggest drop last week, falling to 466,000, a 14-month low. New home sales were up 6.2% in October 2009 to an annualized rate of 430,000, at 1-year high. Personal income for October 2009 increased 0.2% and personal spending for October 2009 increased 0.7%.

US financial markets are closed on Thursday, 26 November 2009, for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The British economy shrank in the third quarter, but at a slower pace than initially estimated, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter and fell 5.1% compared to the third quarter of last year.

The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 344.02 points or 2% to 16,854.93. The Sensex opened almost unchanged at 17,199.05. It lost 390.08 points at the day's low of 16,808.87 in mid-afternoon trade. It rose 3.56 points at the day's high of 17,202.51 in early trade

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 102.60 points or 2.01% to 5,005.55. It hit a low of 4,986.05 in intraday trade.

A deluge of global liquidity has boosted stocks across the globe this year. Governments and central banks around the world have injected trillions of dollars in the past one year to pull the world out of a most severe recession since the 1930s Great Depression. The Sensex is up 7207.62 points or 74.71% in calendar year 2009, as on 26 November 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 8694.53 points or 106.54% as on 26 November 2009.

Nifty December 2009 futures were at 4,980.55, at a discount of 25 points as compared to the spot closing. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment spurted to Rs 1,37,130.38 crore from Rs 91,235.90 crore on Wednesday, 25 November 2009. This is a record turnover on NSE's F&O segment.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak. The breadth had turned negative in early afternoon trade after a strong start. On BSE, 1910 shares declined as compared with 905 that rose. A total of 72 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.45% and the BSE Small-cap index fell 0.98%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

All sectoral indices on BSE ended lower. The BSE Oil & Gas index (down 2.30%), the BSE Bankex (down 2.64%), the BSE Realty index (down 2.11%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 2.24%), underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Capital Goods index (down 1.05%), the BSE PSU index (down 1.34%), the BSE FMCG index (down 1.45%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 0.34%), the BSE Teck index (down 1.49%), the BSE Metal index (down 1.83%), the BSE Power index (down 1.29%), the BSE Auto index (down 1.54%), the BSE IT index (down 1.97%) outperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4487 crore, lower than Rs 4,872.39 crore on Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 25 dipped while the rest gained. Reliance Infrastructure (down 3.01%), ITC (down 2.87%), and Jaiprakash Associates (down 2.44%), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Private sector banking pivotals declined despite reports indicating the government plans to move a bill early next year to amend a banking law for allowing foreign investors in private banks to have voting rights in proportion to their shareholdings. Currently, voting rights of foreign investors are capped at 10%.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank slumped 4.15% to Rs 861.80 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank shed 2.44%.

State run banking shares declined on reports the government is likely to postpone a plan to recapitalise state-owned banks to the next financial year, as some key approvals to the process are yet to come.

State Bank of India (down 3.29%), Bank of Baroda (down 3.02%), Punjab National Bank (down 1.94%), Vijaya Bank (down 5.83%), Union Bank of India (down 3.38%), Oriental Bank of Commerce (down 2.75%), and Andhra Bank (down 1.87%), edged lower.

The World Bank had sanctioned a loan of $2 billion to the Indian government to recapitalise 15-16 state-owned banks.

India's largest private sector steel marker by sales Tata Steel plunged 3.95% after it reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 2707 crore in Q2 September 2009 as compared with a net profit of Rs 4772 crore in Q2 September 2008. Net sales dropped 42.82% to Rs 25270 crore in Q2 September 2009 over in Q2 September 2008. The results were announced during market hours today, 26 November 2009.

India's largest aluminum maker by sales Hindalco Industries slipped 1.81%. The company on Tuesday raised about Rs 2900 crore through private placement of shares to qualified buyers to part-finance its expansion projects.

Other metal stocks declined on profit booking. The gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, rose 1.67% to 3,178.30 on Wednesday.

JSW Steel (down 2.62%), Steel Authority of India (Sail) (down 1.50%), and Sterlite Industries (down 1.67%), and Sesa Goa (down 1.55%) edged lower.

Hindustan Zinc climbed 3.83%. Recently, a foreign broker rated the stock as 'buy' with a 12-month price estimate of Rs 1,529.

India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors rose 0.12% to Rs 644.50. The stock gained in volatile trade after swinging in a band of Rs 611-Rs 650.70 for the day. The company will unveil its consolidated results for the quarter ended September 2009 on Friday, 27 November 2009.

However other auto stocks dipped on profit booking. India's largest small car marker by sales Maruti Suzuki India dipped 3.26%. India's top tractor market by sales Mahindra & Mahindra shed 1.39%.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitialisation Reliance Industries (RIL) settled at Rs 1057.70 after the stock went ex-bonus from today, 26 November 2009. The stock oscillated in a band of Rs 1056.60 and Rs 1110 in the day. The stock had closed at Rs 2193.75 on Wednesday, 25 November 2009.

Meanwhile, Sinopec Group, the largest refiner in Asia by capacity, and US private equity investment firm TPG are not considering bidding for a stake in bankrupt Dutch chemical firm LyondellBasell Industries. Indian energy giant RIL has reportedly offered between US$10 billion and US$12 billion last weekend for acquiring LyondellBasell Industries.

India's largest power generation firm NTPC fell 1.56%. As per reports, the government is considering cancelling the power PSU's Rs 2,000-crore contract with a Russian equipment firm Technopromexports (TPE).

Meanwhile, the Bombay High Court, on Wednesday, held that it will frame additional issues for the trial in a dispute for gas supply between state-run NTPC and Reliance Industries (RIL) on 4 December 2009. Justice Anoop Mohta has asked the parties to decide which documents submitted by either of them will be admitted or denied by the other

Shares of state-run oil marketing companies fell after crude oil prices surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday, 25 November 2009. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) (down 1.90%), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) (down 2.36%) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) (down 1.08%), edged lower.

Rise in crude oil prices will increase under-recoveries of state-run oil firms on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene at a controlled price. Light, sweet crude rose $1.94 or 2.55% to $77.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday, 25 November 2009 after a US government inventory report showed a lower than expected rise in inventories last week.

India's second largest software exporter Infosys fell 2.61% following reports it is considering acquiring companies in the consulting and health-care industries for as much as $500 million. Other IT pivotals also edged lower on profit booking. India's third largest software exporter Wipro declined 2.54% despite a 2.18% rise in its American depositor receipt (ADR) on Wednesday. India's largest software exporter TCS fell 2.46%.

Mahindra Satyam rose 2.48% to Rs 92.80 on bargain hunting after the company's top official told media that customer attrition has stopped and the firm is not resorting to price cuts to bag new deals. The stock had earlier tanked as much as 8.28% to hit day's low of Rs 83.05

Rate sensitive realty shares declined on worries of higher interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had late last month raised the provisioning requirements for loans to commercial real estate from 0.4% to 1% at a regular monetary policy review.

Indiabulls Real Estate (down 5.15%), Unitech (down 1.72%), Parsvnath Developers (down 2.37%), Anant Raj Industries (down 2.37%), and DLF (down 2.33%), declined.

Cement stocks saw an across the board rally on hopes demand will remain firm from the infrastructure sector. ACC (up 0.43%), India Cement (up 4.26%), Birla Corporation Cement (up 0.99%), and Shree Cement (up 1.84%), rose.

J K Cements surged 2.40%, extending gains for the second consecutive day, after one of the promoter group companies hiked its stake in the firm. The company made this announcement during trading hours on Wednesday, 25 November 2009, when the stock had risen 1.07%

Mahindra Satyam was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 271.20 crore followed by Tata Steel (Rs 252.33 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 121.53 crore), Housing Development & Infrastructure (Rs 121.10 crore), and State Bank of India (Rs 121.05 crore).

Cals Refineries was the volume topper on BSE with volume of 4.05 crore shares followed by Mahindra Satyam (3.01 crore shares), IFCI (1.21 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (90.84 lakh shares), and Unitech (67.40 lakh shares).

Sugar shares declined after spot sugar price dropped on Wednesday on weak demand and hopes supplies will improve after sugar mills in the country's top cane-producing region offered higher prices for cane procurement.

Bajaj Hindusthan (down 2.11%), Balrampur Chini Mills (down 3.11%), Shree Renuka Sugars (down 2.39%), Sakthi Sugar (down 2.44%), and Triveni Engineering & Industries (down 3.26%), declined.

Shipping stocks declined after the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures the changes in dry bulk freight rates across all categories of vessels, declined 2.44% to 4,234 on Wednesday, 25 November 2009.

Great Eastern Shipping (down 3.90%), Mercator Lines (down 6.22%), Varun Shipping (down 2.03%), Essar Shipping (down 2.73%), slipped.

EIH jumped 4.52% on reports cigarette maker ITC is open to raising its stake in the company after media reported that investor Analjit Singh plans to buy another 17% in EIH.

Kwality Dairy (India) gained 1.88% after the company fixed 11 December 2009 as the record date for a 10-for-1 stock split. The company announced the record date during trading hours today, 26 November 2009.

Jet Airways (India) soared 5.77% to Rs 468.30 on reports the company is looking to hire 25-30 Indian pilots for its proposed expansion of operations.
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DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. we assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.