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INDIAN STOCK MARKET END-SESSION



The key benchmark indices ended a choppy trading session lower, defying mostly higher global stocks and snapping last two days' gains. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 30.57 points or 0.17%, off close to 85 points from the day's high and up close to 25 points from the day's low. Metal and capital goods stocks fell. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) also lost ground. But, realty stocks rose.

India's largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose on good Q3 results. India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services rose. The company announced good Q3 results after market hours today. The market breadth turned negative in late trade in contrast to a strong breadth earlier in the day.

The market edged higher in early trade tracking higher Asian stocks. The market lost ground later. The market came off the day's lows in morning trade. The market hit a fresh intraday low in morning trade. It soon cut losses. The market moved between positive and negative terrain in mid-afternoon trade. The market recovered from lower level after hitting a fresh intraday low in late trade.

The world economy is still fragile but the recovery from the financial crisis has been significantly faster than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected, the head of the institution Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Thursday. In his first news conference of the year in Washington, the IMF Managing Director said the IMF would unveil more upbeat growth forecasts in an update of the fund's World Economic Outlook later this month.

Meanwhile, money continues to pour into emerging market and bond funds and out of money markets, as well as commodities, fund tracker EPFR Global said on Friday, 15 January 2010. Renewed interest in Japanese equities, and outflows from commodity sector funds and global equity funds, have been the only real departure from fund flow patterns seen during 2009, EPFR said.

Asia ex-Japan equity funds absorbed $481 million during the week ended 13 January 2010, their best showing since early December 2009. However, China funds saw outflows for a third straight week -- the longest period of outflows since February 2009 -- totalling $287 million as Beijing's move to tighten monetary policy offset strong Chinese trade data.

Closer home, the headline inflation jumped to a one-year high in December 2009, reinforcing views the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will start increasing reserve requirements later this month to contain price pressures as the economic recovery strengthens. Financial markets have mostly factored in a 50-basis point rise in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the level of cash banks must keep with the central bank, on 29 January 2010 but recent strong data has raised expectations that policy rates might also be raised.

The wholesale price index rose 7.3% in December 2009 from a year earlier, its highest since November 2008 and accelerating from a 4.8% gain in November 2009, data showed on Thursday. The rise was driven by near 20% jump in food prices, which rose on weak monsoon rains and flooding in parts of the country. Inflation in manufacturing products picked up to 5.2% from 4% in November, a sign that inflationary pressures were spreading to other sectors of the economy.

Data also showed on Tuesday industrial output grew at faster-than-expected 11.7% in November from a year earlier. The purchasing managers' index rose to its highest since May in December while car sales rose an annual 40.3% last month.

The government, which is pressing the RBI to hold rates to ensure the $1.2 trillion economy's recovery, ordered this week the sale of stocked grain and extended duty-free sugar imports by another nine months, hoping to rein in high food inflation.

Meanwhile, a panel of experts will review over the next three months how to encourage foreign investment in the financial sector such as the bonds and the stock markets, the government said on Thursday. The panel, which has experts from both the private and the government sectors, will identify challenges in meeting the financing needs of the Indian economy through foreign investment, according to a government statement. The panel will take views on foreign investments till 10 February 2010, the statement said, and will submit its report by mid-March.

Government policy makers, including deputy chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia have said that India needs more capital flows especially for infrastructure sector.

Banks on Thursday urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep interest rates stable at its policy review later this month, saying any increase could further dent sluggish demand for loans.

European shares rose on Friday, extending a winning run to three sessions, after results at US chipmaker Intel boosted hopes of a strong earnings season. The key benchmark indices in France, and UK were up by between 0.05% to 0.25%. Germany's DAX fell 0.44%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday kept interest rates at a record low of 1% and the central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet made dovish comments. Trichet told a press conference that recent data suggest the euro-zone economy continued to grow in the fourth quarter of last year, but said many of the factors that have supported growth are temporary, and that future growth will continue to be constrained by the need of banks, households and governments to repair their balance sheets.

Trichet said Greece, which is suffering from fiscal crisis, would receive no special treatment from the central bank

Asian stocks reversed early losses. Most of the indices had fallen earlier in the day as weak US retail sales and a rise in US jobless claims made investors wary about the strength of its economic recovery, offsetting better-than-expected earnings from technology bellwether Intel. The key benchmark indices in China, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Indonesia rose by between 0.07% to 0.95%. But Hong Kong and South Korea fell by between 0.04% to 0.29%.

Data out from China on Friday showed that Chinese banks extended 379.8 billion yuan ($55.6 billion) in loans in December, bringing banking lending for the full year to 9.6 trillion yuan, a rise of 95.3% from the year earlier, according to data released Friday by the People's Bank of China. Money supply as measured by M2 was up 27.7% in December, easing slightly from November's 29.7% rise, the PBOC's data showed.

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could fall 18 points at the opening bell on Friday, 15 January 2010.

Technology shares drove Wall Street higher on Thursday on bets ahead of Intel's quarterly results that business spending will bolster profits in the sector. Bank stocks gained after President Obama announced a tax that would amount to 90 billion dollars over 10 years against banks that received federal bailout funds. The Dow gained 29.78 points, or 0.3%, to 10,710.55. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 2.78 points, or 0.2%, to 1,148.46, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 8.84 points, or 0.4%, to 2,316.74.

In economic data, the latest initial jobless claims increased 11,000 from the previous week to 444,000. But continuing claims dropped larger than expected to 4.60 million. In other data, advance retail sales for December 2009 decreased 0.3%, which was weaker than the 0.5% increase that had been expected.

Closer home, the BSE 30-share Sensex fell 30.57 points or 0.17% at 17,554.30. The Sensex fell 55.76 points at the day's low of 17529.11 in late trade. At the day's high of 17,639.85, the Sensex rose 54.98 points in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty fell 7.70 points, or 0.15% to 5252.20.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.3% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.4%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

Sectoral indices on BSE were mixed. BSE Realty index (up 0.73%), BSE FMCG index (up 0.4%), banking sector index Bankex (up 0.21%), BSE Healthcare index (up 0.08%), BSE Auto index (down 0.03%), BSE IT index (down 0.04%), BSE Power index (down 0.07%), outperformed the Sensex. BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.34%), BSE Metal index (down 0.49%), BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.6%), and BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.94%), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market turned negative. Breadth was strong earlier in the day. On BSE, 1414 shares advanced compared with 1,511 that declined. A total of 66 shares remained unchanged.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 18 fell while the rest rose.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6060 crore, lower than Rs 6216.58 crore on Wednesday, 14 January 2010.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 1.04%, snapping last three days' gains. RIL early this week raised $763 million through a block sale of 3.3 crore shares. RIL raised $763 million through a block sale of 3.3 crore shares on Monday. Reliance, which is bidding for bankrupt LyondellBasell Industries, had previously sold treasury shares to state-owned insurer Life Insurance Corp of India raising $577 million. As per reports last week, Reliance had sweetened its offer to buy a controlling stake that valued LyondellBasell at $13.5 billion.

India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services rose 1.23%. The company's net profit rose 33.9% to Rs 1823.90 crore on 8.57% rise in total income to Rs 7714.04 crore in Q3 December 2009 over Q3 December 2008. The result was announced after the market hours today.

Capital goods stocks fell on profit taking. ABB, Thermax, Crompton Greaves and Praj Industries, fell by between 0.37% to 1.49%.

India's largest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) fell 0.21%. Bhel on Thursday said it has bagged a Rs 200-crore order from PowerGrid Corporation of India for supplying insulators for setting up transmission lines.

India's largest engineering & construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro fell 0.97% extending Thursday's fall. The company said recently it has received contracts worth Rs 2,325 crore for commercial and residential construction in Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal and Chandigarh

Metal stocks also fell on profit taking. Steel Authority of India, Hiindalco Industries, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Steel and Sterlite Industries fell by between 0.17% to 2.65%.

Tata Steel, the world's eighth-largest steelmaker fell 0.26%. The company said on 5 January 2010 sales from its Indian operations rose 73% in December 2009 to 636,000 tonnes from a year earlier. The Indian operations account for about a quarter of the group's total annual global capacity of 30 million tonnes, which includes unit Corus, Europe's second-largest steelmaker

Rate sensitive realty stocks rose on bargain hunting after last three days' losses. India's largest realty player by market capitalization DLF rose 0.74%. On 16 December 2009, the company's board approved merger of its commercial realty arm DLF Assets (DAL) with itself, a move aimed at repaying some of DAL's debt.

Among other realty stocks, Omaxe, Ackruti City, Unitech and Phoenix Mills rose by between 0.45% to 5.02%.

Banking stocks rose on bargain hunting after registering losses over the past three days. Fears of a central bank monetary tightening had weighed on bank stocks recently. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 0.66% even as its ADR fell 0.24% on Thursday.

India's largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose 0.33% after net profit jumped 31.6% to Rs 818.50 crore on 5.4% growth in net total income to Rs 3076.90 crore in Q3 December 2009 over Q3 December 2008. The result exceeded market expectations. A total of eight brokerages had forecast a between 21.3% to 30.7% growth in bottom line. Its ADR rose 0.44% on Thursday. The bank announced the result during market hours today.

But, India's largest bank by net profit and branch network State Bank of India fell 0.6%. Non-performing loans (NPAs) in the small and medium enterprise sector (SME) are on the rise, chairman O.P Bhatt said on Monday. The state-run bank paid advance tax of Rs 1795 crore versus Rs 1700 crore.

Axis Bank rose 1.52% after its net profit rose 30.97% to Rs 655.98 crore in Q3 December 2009 over Q3 December 2008. The bank announced the result during market hours today.

FMCG company and hotel chain operator ITC rose 1.77% on reports the firm expects to add 8-10 hotels in India in the next 3-5 years to the 110 the diversified company currently operates, as a growing economy boosts demand for rooms. ITC's hotels division would add two properties in 2010/11 at Chennai in south India and Kolkata in the eastern region, but the details of investment were not disclosed.

Among other FMCG stocks, Hindustan Unilever, United Breweries and Marico rose by between 0.12% to 1.22%.

NTPC, India's largest utility by sales, rose 0.63% extending Thursday's 0.59% gains. The company said on Thursday its follow-on public offer of 41.22 crore shares, or 5% in the company, will open on 3 February 2010 and close on 5 February 2010. The government holds an 89.5% stake in NTPC.

Among other power stocks, Power Grid Corporation of India, Tata Power Company, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Power fell by between 0.02% to 2.25%.

India's second largest mobile services provider by sales Reliance Communications rose 4.76% extending Thursday's 4.07% rally. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has cleared Reliance Infratel's draft red herring prospectus for its proposed initial public offering (IPO). Reliance Infratel will offer 10% equity under the proposed IPO. At present, Reliance Communications owns 95% of Reliance Infratel and the balance 5% is held by seven financial investors

Among other telecom stocks, Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Spice Communications fell by between 0.16% to 0.55%.

PSU OMCs fell on reports the finance ministry wants to pay only one third of the revenue losses of the three oil companies on the sale of the two cooking fuel as per a subsidy-sharing formula that worked till 2007-08. Oil ministry is demanding a 100% compensation for under-pricing cooking gas and kerosene from the finance ministry as per a cabinet decision taken in July 2009. HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil Corporation fell by between 0.71% to 1.53%.

The finance ministry is reportedly unwilling to pay the entire Rs 31,700 crore demanded as compensation by the petroleum ministry on behalf of the state-owned oil companies IOC, BPCL and HPCL for selling cooking gas and kerosene below cost in the current financial year.

Auto stocks were mixed. India's top truck maker by sales India's largest tractor marker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) fell 1.33%. M&M marked its entry into the heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) segment with its unveiling of 25 and 31 tonne trucks with its US-based joint venture partner Navistar Inc.

Mahindra & Mahindra, reported 122% rise in its domestic sales to 22,754 units in December 2009 over December 2008. The company sold a total of 24,001 vehicles (domestic plus exports) in December 2009 as against 11,172 vehicles sold in December 2008.

TVS Motors fell 0.26% extending Thursday's losses. Sales rose 34% to 119,701 units in December 2009 over December 2008.

India's largest motorcycle maker by sales Hero Honda Motors fell 0.33% falling for the third straight day. Hero Honda will comfortably exceed its fiscal 2009/10 sales target of 40 lakh units, its managing director Pawan Munjal said to media on 7 January 2010. Sales jumped 74% to 375,838 units in December 2009 over December 2008.

India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki was flat. The company recently said it is considering raising prices of its vehicles shortly. The stock had witnessed a sell-off over the past few days on worries competition will intensify in the small-car segment which is Maruti's mainstay.

Maruti Suzuki India reported 50.6% increase in total vehicle sales to 84,804 units in December 2009 over December 2008. Domestic sales rose 36.5% to 71,000 units, while exports surged 223.7% to 13,804 units.

Bajaj Auto rose 1.3%. Net profit surged 189.20% to Rs 507.29 crore on 57.9% spurt in net sales to Rs 3165.84 crore in Q3 December 2009 over Q3 December 2008. The company announced the result on after market hours on Tuesday.

Tata Motors, India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales rose 1.83% after company said on Friday it sold 74,707 vehicles globally in December, a rise of 84 % from a year earlier. This included sales of Jaguar and Land Rover, which rose 33% from a year earlier to 21,134 vehicles, it said in a statement.

Shares of public sector companies rose with divestment being the flavour of the season. Dredging Corporation Of India, Container Corporation of India, State Trading Corporation Of India, MMTC, Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers, Hindustan Copper, Neyveli Lignite Corporation, NMDC, BEML and Bharat Electronics, rose by between 0.11% to 17.38%.

Cement shares rose on reports cement industry is now pitching for concrete highways in the light of road, transport and highways ministry's plan to construct over 18,000 kilometer greenfield expressways by 2032. ACC and Ambuja Cements rose by between 3% to 5.17%.

Shipping stocks rose after the Baltic dry index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose 1.89% to 3,235 in London on Thursday, 14 January 2010. Essar Shipping (up 5.2%), GE Shipping Company (up 2.42%), Shipping Corporation of India (up 5.25%), Mercator Lines (up 2.38%), rose.

Cals Refineries clocked the highest volume of 2.54 crore shares on BSE. HFCL (1.22 crore shares), Pipavav Shipyard (1.14 crore shares), Dish TV (0.89 crore shares) and Sanraa Media (0.86 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

State Bank of India clocked the highest turnover of Rs 165.95 crore on BSE. Bharati Shipyard (139.66 crore), State Trading Corporation of India (Rs 123.74 crore), NMDC (Rs 113.38 crore) and Bombay Dyeing (Rs 105.23 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

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FOREX REPORT



Mid-Day Report: Euro Remains Pressured, Yen Pares Gain after Solid US Data

Euro remains broadly pressured in early US session as concern on Greece's fiscal health continue to weigh down the common currency. Yen was lifted up earlier today on risk aversion but pares some of its gain after release of stronger than expectation manufacturing data from US. Pound remains relatively steady as supported by buying in EUR/GBP cross. Dollar is a bit firmer against commodity currencies as crude oil and gold weaken mildly.

Data released in US saw Empire State Manufacturing index rose much more than expected to 15.9 in December, suggesting expansion in the manufacturing sector is gaining much momentum. Headline CPI rose less than expected by 0.1% mom, 2.7% yoy in December while core CPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.8% yoy, inline with consensus. Industrial production rose 0.6% in December with capacity utilization up to 72.9%. Eurozone CPI released today show 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy growth in December. Swiss Combined PPI rose 0.1% mom, -2.5% yoy in December.

Earlier today, Euro weakens broadly as concern on Greece's fiscal health continues while there are rumors that German Chancellor Angela Merkel may resign after being accused by her own Christian Democrats of failing to show enough leadership. Nevertheless, the German government denied the rumors and said they're "just
pulled out of thin air."


EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4445; (P) 1.4500; (R1) 1.4554; More

EUR/USD's fall from 1.4578 extends further to as low as 1.4359 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside downside for 1.4266 support. As noted before, correction from 1.4217 has likely completed at 1.4578 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571. Break of 1.4266 will suggest that whole fall from 1.5143 has resumed for 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, above 1.4445 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.4578 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.41; (P) 132.53; (R1) 133.35; More.

EUR/JPY's fall extends further to as low as 130.29 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 126.88/127.50 support zone. Rise from 127.50 should have completed at 134.36 already, ahead of 134.54 resistance and recent development suggests that price actions from 126.88 are consolidative in nature and fall from 138.47 is still in progress for another low below 126.88. On the upside, above 131.67 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 133.62 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is still bounded in medium term range between 126.88 and 139.21 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, a break of 126.88 support will revive that case that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21 already and down trend from 169.96 is resuming. In such case, we'd expect deeper fall to 112.10 and beyond to resume the long term down trend. On the upside, however, break of 134.54 resistance will revive that case that recent price actions are merely consolidations to medium term rise from 112.10 already and another high above 139.21 should be seen before EUR/JPY tops.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8849; (P) 0.8892; (R1) 0.8918; More.

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside with 0.8883 minor resistance intact. Prior break of 0.8833/33 support zone indicates that whole fall from 0.9410 has resumed and should now target 61.8% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8786 next. Break there will target next key support level of 0.8704. On the upside, above 0.8883 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.9027 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're still favoring the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves down to 0.8399 already. Rise from 0.8399 is possibly resuming the long term up trend. Hence, fall from 0.9410 is viewed as a correction only and should be contained by 0.8704 support. Break of 0.9027 will suggest that correction from 0.9410 has completed and rise from 0.8399 is resuming for a test on 0.9799 high first and then 61.8% projection of 0.6535 to 0.9799 from 0.8399 at 1.0416.

However, break of 0.8704 support will argue that firstly, rise from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already. Secondly, this will indicate that fall from 0.9410 is likely the third leg of the correction pattern that started at 0.9799 and could extend beyond 0.8399 support before the whole correction concludes.


USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.68; (P) 91.36; (R1) 91.87; More.

USD/JPY's break of 90.74 support indicates that fall from 93.74 has resumed and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 87.36 support next. Break there will also confirm that whole rise from 84.81 has completed. In such case, medium term down trend is possibly resuming for new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 92.03 will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first before another fall.

In the bigger picture, at this point, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 95.06 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.21. Hence, there is no clear indication of reversal yet. A break of 87.36 support will indicate that rebound form 84.81 has completed and the whole fall form 124.13 is possibly resuming for 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0153; (P) 1.0193; (R1) 1.0228; More

As noted before, USD/CHF's correction from 1.0506 has likely completed at 1.0130 after drawing support from mentioned 1.0141/0175 (61.8% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0141) support zone. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen to 1.0383 resistance first. Break there will argue that rally from 0.9919 is resuming for 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance. However, note that sustained trading below 1.0141/0175 support zone will dampen our view and bring deeper decline towards 0.9919 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6273; (P) 1.6310; (R1) 1.6369; More

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for the moment. Break of 1.6193 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 1.5892 might have completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.5829 support. On the upside, above 1.6353 will bring another rise. But after all, rise from 1.5829 is treated as correction to fall from 1.6875 only. Hence, we'd expect further loss of upside momentum on next rise and the whole rebound from 1.5829 should complete below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and bring resumption of the whole fall from 1.6875.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.

However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475. will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
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