Derivatives: The market will remain cautious despite firm rollover trend
Although the rollover and the general trend seem favorable, the market may approach the New Year with some cautiousness.
Year 2009 ended on a firm note for the Indian Capital market amid still persisting uncertainty globally. The S&P CNX Nifty closed at 5201.05 with excellent rollover being witnessed in the futures & options (F&O) into the January 2010 series. The overall addition of open interest (OI) in the January series alone was 31.61 crore shares on the last trading day of the year and the total OI in the January series as on 31st December 2009 stood at 149.61 crore shares. Aggressive short covering of the December series coupled with fresh long being built in the January 2010 series led the market to sustain the northward move unhindered during the past few days. The nifty January series added 49.64 lakh shares in OI on 31st December 2009 to take the total OI to 2.20 crore shares. Although most of the front-line stock futures and index futures added fresh long OI the nifty option activity indicates some cautiousness as fresh calls were written at the 5200, 5300 and 5400 strikes. Nifty strikes of 5200, 5300 and 5400 calls and puts have been witnessing aggressive OI built-up during the past few days signifying cautious approach.
On the stock futures front most of the frontline stock futures witnessed fresh long OI built-up in the January series. OI in Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors increased by 17.32 lakh shares, 27.90 lakh shares and 15.31 lakh shares respectively during the last trading day of the year. The total OI in these scrip on the day under review stood at 86.58 lakh shares, 1.38 crore shares and 1.24 crore shares respectively. OI in ICICI Bank, Sail, Bharti, Rcom and Maruti- Januaryseries increased to 92.77 lakh shares, 66.27 lakh shares, 1.56 crore shares, 2.24 crore shares and 19.67 lakh shares respectively.
Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS
Date Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total
IDX/FUT STK/FUT IDX/FUT STK/FUT TOTAL
27-Nov-09 24665 19895 49581 1934 96075
30-Nov-09 17464 17199 30912 1973 67548
1-Dec-09 12606 17793 28166 2091 60657
2-Dec-09 11866 19831 22893 2126 56715
3-Dec-09 14559 18200 25938 1964 60660
4-Dec-09 17412 17490 34873 1756 71531
7-Dec-09 14002 14780 27395 1864 58041
8-Dec-09 17641 17741 31994 2052 69429
9-Dec-09 15259 16937 27174 1945 61314
10-Dec-09 14415 15059 26852 1658 57983
11-Dec-09 17440 16121 35873 1898 71332
14-Dec-09 16342 15212 40475 1666 73694
15-Dec-09 15450 16638 35621 2013 69721
16-Dec-09 16824 17380 39950 1977 76131
17-Dec-09 16561 16550 38810 1777 73698
18-Dec-09 15397 15584 38544 1912 71437
21-Dec-09 13372 15612 39710 1934 70628
22-Dec-09 10994 17031 30485 1780 60289
23-Dec-09 23431 25122 65824 3230 117608
24-Dec-09 16127 23105 42907 2526 84665
29-Dec-09 14545 23533 34146 2111 74335
30-Dec-09 15176 26591 36024 1901 79691
31-Dec-09 20080 29644 53024 2673 105422
Source: NSE
Overall the market wide OI on Thursday stood at 153.28 crore shares. Of these major additions in OI was witnessed in the stock futures segment, while there was fair addition in stock option front as well. (See table OI breakup).
Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 31st December 2009
Open Interest (OI)* Change**
Market wide 153.28 36.91
Index Future 2.47 0.57
Stock Future 135.46 32.92
Index Options 6.63 0.75
Stock options 8.73 2.67
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE
The most active options in the January series were the 5200 to 5500 strike calls and 5000 to 5300 puts. Call strike witnessed addition of OI due to fresh call writing at the above-mentioned strikes, while the puts also witnessed some put writing at these strikes. The OI in 5200, 5300 and 5400 strikes increased by 4.02 lakh shares, 9.35 lakh shares and 5.12 lakh shares to 25.74 lakh shares, 27.18 lakh shares and 23.60 lakh shares respectively. The OI in 5100 and 5200 strike puts increased to 19.71 lakh shares and 18.59 lakh shares respectively as on 31st December 2009. (See most active Nifty options table).
Most active Nifty options (January 2010 series)
OI
Call
Nifty 5200 2574450
Nifty 5300 2717600
Nifty 5400 2360300
Nifty 5500 1440950
Put
Nifty 5000 3852400
Nifty 5100 1971250
Nifty 5200 1859350
Nifty 5300 768400
Source: NSE
Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in January series stock futures on 31st December 2009
Scrip Name OI* Change* % Change
BOSCHLTD 4100 3500 583
ASIANPAINT 13600 10400 325
CESC 679800 409200 151
ORIENTBANK 1618800 933600 136
BEL 113712 62100 120
PIRHEALTH 774000 394500 104
FEDERALBNK 953971 468901 97
ORCHIDCHEM 6711600 3168900 89
IOB 2247900 1014800 82
COLPAL 273900 121550 80
* No of shares
Source: NSE
The global market mood will continue to play a major role going ahead, besides as the result season commences from the second week of January that could provide a precursor for any fresh direction. Although the rollover andthe general trend seem favorable, the market may approach the New Year with some cautiousness.
FOR THE LAST TRADING DAY
