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INTRODUCTION TO FOREX


Forex is the world’s largest and most liquid trading market. Many consider Forex to be the number one home-based business. Even though “regular” people have had the opportunity to take part in the Forex market (similar to the way banks and large corporations do) since 1998, it is just now becoming the cool, hip, new thing to talk about at parties, business events, and other social gatherings.

Although it has been somewhat of a loosely guarded secret, every day more and more investors are turning to the online world of Forex trading for income and profit, due to its numerous benefits & advantages over traditional trading vehicles such as stocks, bonds, and commodities.

But, still, whenever something is new or is just becoming a part of social consciousness, misconceptions and mistaken impressions are prevalent, the mind has to be open and the slate has to be clear to start out with accurate information.

So, this article will hopefully give you some solid, but basic, information on just what "FX" (Forex) means, what it is, and why it exists.

As a successful trader said, Trading Forex is like picking money up off the floor, and not trading Forex is like leaving it there for someone else to pick up." Others in the industry have also said, “Trading Forex is like having an ATM machine on your own computer”.

Here's an explanation of what Forex is and how a bunch of traders, profit from it.
The Foreign Exchange Market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the spot (cash) market for currency.
But, don't mistake FX as trading the futures market, where you buy a contract to purchase a particular currency at a future price in time.
What FX traders do is much less risky than trading currencies on the futures market, much more profitable, and a lot easier than trading stocks.

So, you're probably wondering where this market us or how to access the FX market?
The answer is that FX Trading is not bound to any one trading floor and is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.

Yes, if that's the first time you've heard about an all-electronic market, I know this may sound somewhat intriguing to you.
Here's what you are actually trading when you participate in the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market:
Essentially, like the large banks who use the FX market to protect themselves from the fluctuating exchange rate of different currencies, as an investor, what a FX trader is doing is simultaneously exchanging one countries currency for another. So, in actuality, they're electronically trading a currency-pair and the price that is quoted to us is the exchange rate between the two currencies.

In other words, the quoted price is how many of the one currency is worth 1 of the other currency.
Example:
EUR/USD last trade 1.2850 - One Euro is worth $1.2850 US dollars. The first currency (in this example, the EURO) is referred to as the base currency and the second (/USD) as the counter or quote currency.

The Forex has a daily trading volume of around $1.5 trillion dollars - 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. This means that 1,498,574 skilled traders could each take 1 million dollars out of the Forex market every day and the Forex would still have more money left than the New York Stock exchange every day!

The Forex plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for Forex. International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a Forex market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Japan can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollar.

There's plenty of money to be made using Forex for plenty of traders that use the right trading techniques / tactics that will allow them to profit immensely. And, with only 5% of the daily turnover of volume coming from banks, government and large corporations who need to hedge, the other 95% are for speculation and profit.
Continue reading...

BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR US DOLLAR


The US dollar rocketed higher upon the release of the US non-farm payroll (NFP) report on December 4, which surprisingly showed that the labor market only lost 11,000 jobs in November, compared to forecasts for a decline of 125,000. Furthermore, this was the best reading since December 2007, when the US gained 120,000 jobs, suggesting the labor markets may be nearing a turning point. There’s no doubt that this was positive news, including the drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2 percent to 10.0 percent.

Going forward, though, it’s necessary to keep in mind that with 10 percent of the population unemployed (or 17.2 percent if you count marginally attached workers and those employed part time for economic reasons), there still isn’t as much impetus to fuel consumption growth as there has been over the past 26 years, especially when taking tighter credit conditions into account, suggesting that any economic expansion that occurs going forward may be mild from a historical perspective.

From a technical perspective, the DXY index closed Friday just above the 50 SMA and falling trendline resistance, both of which have been capping prices since July. This may ultimately indicate a change in trend for the US dollar, but uncertainty lies in the fact that closing prices were just barely above the noted resistance points. Furthermore, the currency’s move was fundamentally driven, but we’ve seen in the past that the currency often goes back to trading as a “safe haven” asset the following trading week.

Looking ahead to event risk in the coming week, additional signs of percolating consumption may hit the wires. On Friday, the Commerce Department is forecasted to report that US retail sales rose 0.6 percent in November, after rising 1.4 percent in October on the back of auto sales. Likewise, the retail sales index excluding autos is projected to increase by 0.5 percent, but looking at the International Council of Shopping Centers report, the results could be disappointing. The ICSC index showed that same store sales fell 0.3 percent in November from a year earlier, led by apparel and department store sales. However, with sales of jewelry and electronics reportedly up sharply to mark the start of the holiday shopping season on Black Friday, the upcoming advance retail sales report could reflect rising consumption trends through the end of the year. If the US dollar returns to trading in line with risk trends, positive results could actually weigh on the currency.



Commodities - Metals

Gold Tests $1,200 as Dubai Credit Fears Ease and the Dollar Slumps

Spot Gold - $1,196.60 // $17.00 // 1.44%

Gold rallied to a new record high and briefly pushed above even $1,200 level through Tuesday’s active session. Overtaking last week’s swing high of $1,195, the commodity has proven its buoyancy can survive all but the most certain reversals in underlying risk appetite. And, taking measure of the fundamental impressions on the precious metal over the previous session; there was little doubt that sentiment was the primary driver for spot. Progress on the Dubai World default story took a significant weight off gold bugs’ shoulders. With officials reporting “constructive” negotiations towards restructuring the $26 billion in underperforming liabilities, a global credit shock due to a sovereign debt failure seems to have been averted. Adding fuel to the fire, the safety function of the dollar has been withdrawn and the subsequent drop in the primary pricing tool of the commodity only helped leverage today’s advance. A reflection of speculative interests (though a lagging one), both Morgan Stanley and BlackRock reported in public filings that they had both increased their holdings of gold-related funds through the 3Q. Though, for the other roles of the benchmark currency; the need of an inflation hedge was tempered through Tuesday after the iShares TIPs fund fell for the first time in six session.

Spot Silver - $19.10 // $0.61 // 3.30%

While gold was stealing the spotlight with a push to record highs, silver had established the more unrestrained rally through Tuesday’s session. The precious metal pushed to a 16-month high after finally breaking the $19 - $18 range that had established boundaries to otherwise high volatility over the past two weeks. The dollar’s tumble carry through tumble through the day no doubt spurred the silver on; but extending the commodity’s advance to its breakout and keeping it at its highs is more a response to gold’s impact on demand for tangible assets.

Continue reading...

BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR US DOLLAR


The US dollar rocketed higher upon the release of the US non-farm payroll (NFP) report on December 4, which surprisingly showed that the labor market only lost 11,000 jobs in November, compared to forecasts for a decline of 125,000. Furthermore, this was the best reading since December 2007, when the US gained 120,000 jobs, suggesting the labor markets may be nearing a turning point. There’s no doubt that this was positive news, including the drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2 percent to 10.0 percent.

Going forward, though, it’s necessary to keep in mind that with 10 percent of the population unemployed (or 17.2 percent if you count marginally attached workers and those employed part time for economic reasons), there still isn’t as much impetus to fuel consumption growth as there has been over the past 26 years, especially when taking tighter credit conditions into account, suggesting that any economic expansion that occurs going forward may be mild from a historical perspective.

From a technical perspective, the DXY index closed Friday just above the 50 SMA and falling trendline resistance, both of which have been capping prices since July. This may ultimately indicate a change in trend for the US dollar, but uncertainty lies in the fact that closing prices were just barely above the noted resistance points. Furthermore, the currency’s move was fundamentally driven, but we’ve seen in the past that the currency often goes back to trading as a “safe haven” asset the following trading week.

Looking ahead to event risk in the coming week, additional signs of percolating consumption may hit the wires. On Friday, the Commerce Department is forecasted to report that US retail sales rose 0.6 percent in November, after rising 1.4 percent in October on the back of auto sales. Likewise, the retail sales index excluding autos is projected to increase by 0.5 percent, but looking at the International Council of Shopping Centers report, the results could be disappointing. The ICSC index showed that same store sales fell 0.3 percent in November from a year earlier, led by apparel and department store sales. However, with sales of jewelry and electronics reportedly up sharply to mark the start of the holiday shopping season on Black Friday, the upcoming advance retail sales report could reflect rising consumption trends through the end of the year. If the US dollar returns to trading in line with risk trends, positive results could actually weigh on the currency.

Commodities - Metals

Gold Tests $1,200 as Dubai Credit Fears Ease and the Dollar Slumps

Spot Gold - $1,196.60 // $17.00 // 1.44%

Gold rallied to a new record high and briefly pushed above even $1,200 level through Tuesday’s active session. Overtaking last week’s swing high of $1,195, the commodity has proven its buoyancy can survive all but the most certain reversals in underlying risk appetite. And, taking measure of the fundamental impressions on the precious metal over the previous session; there was little doubt that sentiment was the primary driver for spot. Progress on the Dubai World default story took a significant weight off gold bugs’ shoulders. With officials reporting “constructive” negotiations towards restructuring the $26 billion in underperforming liabilities, a global credit shock due to a sovereign debt failure seems to have been averted. Adding fuel to the fire, the safety function of the dollar has been withdrawn and the subsequent drop in the primary pricing tool of the commodity only helped leverage today’s advance. A reflection of speculative interests (though a lagging one), both Morgan Stanley and BlackRock reported in public filings that they had both increased their holdings of gold-related funds through the 3Q. Though, for the other roles of the benchmark currency; the need of an inflation hedge was tempered through Tuesday after the iShares TIPs fund fell for the first time in six session.

Spot Silver - $19.10 // $0.61 // 3.30%

While gold was stealing the spotlight with a push to record highs, silver had established the more unrestrained rally through Tuesday’s session. The precious metal pushed to a 16-month high after finally breaking the $19 - $18 range that had established boundaries to otherwise high volatility over the past two weeks. The dollar’s tumble carry through tumble through the day no doubt spurred the silver on; but extending the commodity’s advance to its breakout and keeping it at its highs is more a response to gold’s impact on demand for tangible assets.
Continue reading...
DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. we assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.