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MARKET WATCH


The latest monthly payrolls report and a raft of analyst rating revisions made up for a lack of corporate headlines this session. Though the general reaction to those reports was negative, stocks still managed to make their way higher.

The early tone to trade was negative as participants pressured stocks upon learning that December nonfarm payrolls dropped by 85,000, which took many by surprise since the consensus called for no change to payrolls. However, nonfarm payrolls for November were revised upward to show an increase of 4,000 jobs. That marked the first payroll increase in two years and helped keep the unemployment rate at 10.0%, which was expected.

Financials caught the brunt of the early selling effort and trailed for most of the session, but trimmed their losses to finish 0.5% in the red. News that analysts at Citigroup cut their estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS 174.31, -3.36), Morgan Stanley (MS 32.25, -0.67), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.68, -0.11) triggered some profit taking after the financial sector had climbed 6.4% during the previous four sessions. Financials still netted a weekly gain of nearly 6%.

Analysts at JP Morgan hit Coca-Cola (KO 55.15, -1.04), Colgate-Palmolive (CL 81.51, -1.49), and Alberto-Culver (ACV 29.14, -0.55) with downgrades, which weighed on the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector and sent it to a 0.5% loss.

Retailers had to contend with some downgrades, too, but they were able to cut their loss for the session to 0.1%. Still, Macy's (M 16.92, -0.57) wasn't so fortunate; news of a downgrade by analysts at Goldman Sachs sent the company's shares sharply lower, which reversed the gains that came when the company increased its earnings outlook in the previous session.

Tech stocks bounced back from a recent fit of weakness. Tech was the best performing sector in 2009, booking a 60% annual gain, but it has lagged in the new year. However, renewed support for large-cap issues helped drive the sector to a 0.8% gain this session. They also helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 55.95, +3.26) was one of the few companies that was out with its latest quarterly results since the previous session's close. The company brought in better-than-expected earnings of $0.23 per share for its latest quarter. That helped steel stocks climb 4.3% this session and 12.7% for the week.

Strength among steel stocks combined with gains from other raw materials stocks, thanks partly to a 0.6% drop by the dollar, to drive the materials sector to a 1.0% gain.

Industrial stocks made up this session's best performing sector. Their 1.5% advance added to the 1.3% gain that they booked in the previous outing. Despite the move, the sector lacked the influence to make it a legitimate leader for the broader market.

Still, the stocks were able to catch a late bid that helped the broader market break free from an afternoon of sideways chop. The support helped stocks finish higher for the fifth straight session and gave the stock market a weekly gain of 2.7%, which marks its best weekly performance in two months.


currency markets:

he euro saw mixed trading against its major rivals as traders considered data showing the Eurozone unemployment rate rose to its highest level since August 1998, while third quarter GDP growth for the region was confirmed.

The jobless rate in the euro area rose to 10% in November from 9.9% in October, the Eurostat reported Friday. For the euro area, this was the highest rate since August 1998. Economists had expected the rate to remain at 9.9%.

The Eurostat confirmed a 0.4% sequential growth in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter. It follows contractions of 0.1% and 2.5% in the second and first quarters.

The euro moved higher amid volatile trading with the dollar after a disappointing jobs report from the U.S. The European currency rose near 1.4400, moving near the high end of a recent trading range.

The U.S. Labor Department revealed that non-farm payrolls declined by 85,000 in December, compared to a revised gain of 4,000 in November.

The euro edged higher against the British pound and approached the 0.9000 mark again. The European currency had earlier slipped to a four-day low of 0.8919.

Factory gate inflation in the U.K. rose rose to 3.5% in December from 2.9% in November, data from Office for National Statistics showed Friday. The annual growth rate recorded in December was the biggest since January 2009 and was also larger than the consensus forecast of 3.1%.

The euro edged slightly lower against the yen but remained near a monthly high reached earlier in the week. The European currency moved near 133.20 after earlier hitting as high as 134.12.

In economic news, German industrial production grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-on-month in November, reversing a revised fall of 1.7% in the previous month, a report from Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology showed Friday. However, the monthly growth rate stood below the consensus forecast of 1%.

Italy's seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 8.3% in November from 8.2% in October, a report by Istat showed on Friday. This was the highest level since March 2004. The Jobless rate figure for October was revised from 8% reported initially.

CommoditiesOil market :


Crude oil gained for a 10th straight day as cold weather across much of the company boosted demand hopes and offset a larger-than expected buildin supplies reported by the Energy Information Administration. Light sweet crude for February delivery rose to $83.18 per barrel, up $1.41 on the session. Prices had briefly dipped as low as $80.85 but later reached as high as $83.52. The dollar fell against the euro, losing the $1.44 mark. The greenback also slipped amid choppy trading versus the pound.

Statistics released by payroll processor ADP showed that the private sector shed 84,000 jobs in December. This followed a revised drop of 145,000 the previous month.Employment data continues to come in with the initial jobless claims report expected at 8:30 a.m. ET. First-time unemployment applicants are expected to rise to 445,000, compared to 432,000 last week.The Labor Department's payroll report is expected on Friday.The Institute for Supply Management revealed Wednesday that its index of national non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.1 for December. This followed a reading of 48.7 in November.U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 327.3 million in the week ended January 1. A more modest rise of 200,000 barrels was predicted.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week. A build of 500,000 barrels was expected.Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels, less than the predicted drop of 2 million barrels.Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported crude oil inventories declined 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 1. Gasoline supplies rose 5.6 million barrels, according to the API.


DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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GOLD AND OIL REPORT


Gold trades with a soft tone in European morning as USD strengthens. Price will continue moving around 1120-1130 level ahead of US employment report. The yellow metal is likely to be strongly impacted by USD's movement which in turns is influenced by US data. Upside surprise in payrolls data will be negative for gold, at least in the near-term, as this will increase speculations for an earlier Fed rate hike. However, gold price will remain supported by Fed officials' reiteration to keep monetary policy accommodative.

While in consolidation, platinum continues hovering at elevated level. Apart from robust auto data, price remains strong as the first US platinum ETF by ETF Securities will start trading today and is expected to attract huge investments. Similar to platinum, palladium's trading momentum remains intact despite mild retreat from 18-month high. The first-ever US palladium ETF will also be launched today.

Crude oil falls for the second day but a temporary support is seen at 82. Energy prices rallied strongly in December as declines in oil inventory raised hopes for demand recovery. Moreover, abnormally cold weather in the US probably raised distillate demand.

Weather futures by CME suggest that the market anticipate temperature in January will be over 10% colder than 20-year average and that cold weather will continue in February. This may help support oil prices.

Stock markets generally rise higher ahead of the employment report. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added +0.6% as driven by rally in Japanese shares. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained +1.1% on speculations that depreciation in yen will help boost the country's export-heavy economy. Automakers were well-bided with Toyota, Isuzu and Mazda gaining +2.9%, +9.1% and +7.4% respectively.

In Europe, indices opened higher by then pared gains after release of disappointing economic data in the Eurozone. The unemployment rate rose to +10% in November (consensus: 9.9%) while October's reading was revised up to 9.9%. Germany's DAX gains +0.3% to 6037 and France's CAC 40 rises +0.6% to 4048. In the UK, the FTSE Index initially surged to as high as 5549 before retreating to 5529, up +0.05%.

GOLD REPORT:

Gold's recovery stalled after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1227.5 to 1075.2 at 1133.4 and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral. With 1115.9 minor support intact, another rise cannot be ruled out and above 1141 will target 61.8% retracement at 1169.3 next. On the downside, however, break of 1115.9 minor support will argue that recovery from 1075.2 might have completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.

SILVER REPORT

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top is in place and bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 17.50 minor support will suggest that rebound from 16.765 has completed ahead of 61.8% retracement of 19.50 to 16.765 at 18.455 as expected. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for retesting 16.765 support first. However, sustained trading above 18.455 will invalidate this view and argue that whole fall from 19.50 has completed. Stronger rally could then be seen to retest this resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 12.435 should have completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this case and should target lower trend line support at 13.88 level. This will also be the another signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too. Sustained break of the lower trend line support will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low.

Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.


CRUDE OIL REPORT:

Crude oil is losing some upside moment with 4 hours MACD back below signal line again. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor with 80.79 support intact and current rise from 68.59 could extend to upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level. On the downside, break of 80.79 will argue that a short term top might be formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and deeper pull back could be seen.

In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall fro 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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FOREX REPORT


Dollar's rebound stalls as traders are awaiting today's non-farm payrolls report from US. Economists expect the job market to be flat in December after 23 months of contraction. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 10%. Most of the leading indicators to NFP point to a positive report today. ADP reprinted the least contraction since March 2008, -84k in the private sector in December. Employment component of ISM Manufacturing index stayed above 50 level for the third month and rose slightly to 52.0 in December. Employment component of ISM Non-manufacturing index improved from 4.16 to 44 in December even though it's still staying below 50, which suggests contraction. Consumer confidence continues to stabilize around 50 level and rose slightly to 52.9 in December while both the continuing claims and four week average of initial claims continue to fall. The data set suggest that we would likely have a better NFP number than November's -11k and a positive number is indeed possible.

Based on the pattern of recent months, dollar will have positive correlation to the NFP number today. That is, the greenback should be boosted in case of a positive number in NFP that indicates job market growth. Nevertheless, there are two important point to note in today's report. Firstly, any downside revision to November's -11k would probably drag down the December number and keep it negative, which would give some pressure to the greenback. Secondly, unemployment rate surprisingly dropped form 10.2% to 10.0% in November. As consumer confidence is settling at around 50 level, we might get another month of upside surprise in the unemployment rate. Dollar would also be boosted if the unemployment rate surprisingly fell back to single digit.

Looking at the dollar index, the development argues that correction from 78.45 might have completed at 77.09 already but there is no confirmation yet as 78.19 resistance still holds. Nevertheless, break of 78.19 will strongly suggest that whole rise from 74.19 is resuming and should then be targeting 38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 74.19 at 80.08. In such case, we should seen broad based strength in the greenback that sends it through recent high against European majors and USD/JPY would extend it's rise to 95 level. However, a break of 77.36 support will delay the bullish case and bring another fall to continue the correction. But after all, downside is still expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82.

Elsewhere, Swiss unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% in December. UK PPI will be released today and is expected to show -0.4% mom fall in input PPI with output PPI flat mom. Eurozone Q3 GDP is expected to be finalized at 0.4% qoq, -4.10% yoy. Canadian job report is expected to show 20k expansion in December with unemployment rate unchanged at 8.5%.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4255; (P) 1.4350; (R1) 1.4403; More

EUR/USD rebounds strongly in early US session after all, with 1.4256 minor support intact, consolidations from 1.4217 is still in progress and another rise could still be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.4256 support will indicate that whole decline from 1.5143 is resuming. In such case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.49; (P) 92.94; (R1) 93.79; More.

The sharp fall from 93.74 indicates that an intraday top is in place in USD/JPY and turns bias neutral. Note that a break of 90.08 support will argue that rise from 87.36 has completed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD already. Further break of 91.24 support will confirm this case and target 87.36 support next. On the upside, above 93.74 will in turn indicate that whole rebound from 84.81 has resumed for medium term trend line resistance at 95.08 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.21

In the bigger picture, at this point, USD/JPY is still trading well below medium term trend line resistance at 95.08 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.21. Hence, there is no clear indication of reversal yet. A break of 87.36 support will confirm that rebound from 84.81 has completed. The three wave corrective structure will in turn support the case that whole fall form 124.13 is resuming for 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.



GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5865; (P) 1.5962; (R1) 1.6028; More

GBP/USD's strong rebound and break of 1.6057 resistance suggests that pullback from 1.6237 has completed at 1.5896 already. Whole rebound from 1.5829 is possibly resuming and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for 100% projection of 1.5829 to 1.6327 from 1.5896 at 1.6304. But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5896 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5829 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.

However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0265; (P) 1.0317; (R1) 1.0393; More

In spite of the brief break of 1.0378 minor resistance, USD/CHF failed to sustain above and subsequent sharp fall suggests that choppy correction from 1.0506 is still in progress. Another fall to 1.0243 and below cannot be ruled out. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0378 minor resistance will indicate that such correction has possibly completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed for 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.

USD/CHF recovers strongly from 1.0243 but after all, 1.0378 resistance is still intact. Correction from 1.0506 might still extend further. But even in case of another fall, downside is still expected to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0378 minor resistance will indicate that such correction has possibly completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rise from 0.9916 has resumed for 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0298; (P) 1.0336; (R1) 1.0380; More.

Some volatility is seen in USD/CAD in early US session but it's still staying in tight range above 1.0296 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, the choppy consolidation from 1.0851 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.0576 resistance and break of 1.0296 will bring another fall. However, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0205 low and bring reversal. Considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.0576 will suggest that the choppy consolidation has complete and will flip intraday bias back tot he upside for 1.0744 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1123 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9133; (P) 0.9199; (R1) 0.9240; More

AUD/USD rebounds strongly in early US session but after all, it's still staying below 0.9264 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But downside will likely be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9264 at 0.9062. On the upside above 0.9264 will indicate that rise from 0.8734 has resumed and should target 0.9321 resistance first and then 0.9404 high.

In the bigger picture, the corrective three wave structure of fall from 0.9404 to 0.8734 suggests that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. Break of 0.9321 resistance will confirm this case and target a test of 0.9404 first. Break will then target 08 high of 0.9849. On the downside, though, break of 0.8734 support will revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.74; (P) 133.19; (R1) 134.00; More.

EUR/JPY's break of 133.77 resistance indicates that rise from 127.50 has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 132.38 minor support holds. As noted before, break of 134.54 resistance will indicate that whole fall from 138.47 has completed and the current rise from 127.50 could then extend further to upper end of medium term range near to 139.21 resistance. On the downside, however, below 132.38 will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Break of 131.24 support will indicate that rise from 127.50 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest 126.88/127.50 support zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is still bounded in medium term range between 126.88 and 139.21 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, a break of 126.88 support will revive that case that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21 already and down trend from 169.96 is resuming. In such case, we'd expect deeper fall to 112.10 and beyond to resume the long term down trend. On the upside, however, break of 134.54 resistance will revive that case that recent price actions are merely consolidations to medium term rise from 112.10 already and another high above 139.21 should be seen before EUR/JPY tops.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8963; (P) 0.8995; (R1) 0.9010; More.

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral bur after all, another fall is still expected as long as 0.9053 resistance holds. Below 0.8925 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8855 support. Break there will indicate that whole decline from 0.9410 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8786 next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're still favoring the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves down to 0.8399 already. Rise from 0.8399 is possibly resuming the long term up trend. Hence, fall from 0.9410 is viewed as a correction only and should be contained by 0.8704 support. Break of 0.9053 will suggest that correction from 0.9410 has completed and rise from 0.8399 is resuming for a test on 0.9799 high first and then 61.8% projection of 0.6535 to 0.9799 from 0.8399 at 1.0416.

However, break of 0.8704 support will argue that firstly, rise from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already. Secondly, this will argue that fall from 0.9410 is likely the third leg of the correction pattern that started at 0.9799 and could extend beyond 0.8399 support before the whole correction concludes.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4764; (P) 1.4801; (R1) 1.4832; More

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside and the current fall is expected to continue to 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4894 from 1.4988 at 1.4744 next. Break there will bring deeper fall towards next key support level at 1.4577. On the upside, above 1.4838 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But again, break of 1.4988 resistance is needed to confirm that EUR/CHF has bottomed out. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, outlook in EUR/CHF remains bearish as the cross is still staying well below 55 weeks and 55 days EMA. Fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress, as well as the whole down trend from 1.6827. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5138 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished and revive the case that 1.4577 is still in progress. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook :

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.59; (P) 148.16; (R1) 149.28; More

GBP/JPY's rebound from 145.96 extends further and break of 148.62 minor resistance flip intraday bias back to upside for 150.68 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole choppy rise from 139.26 has resumed and should target 153.21 resistance next. On the downside, below 147.03 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 145.96 resistance will revive the case that choppy rise from 139.26 has completed, as well as consolidation from 139.69 and will bring deeper decline to retest 139.26 support.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish view. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will in turn indicate that rise from 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.
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DISCLAIMER: Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. we assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.