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INDIAN STOCK MARKETS / What to expect from monday market


Major hurdle for NIFTY is 5175 that is very strong resistance and NIFTY hasn't given close above this level,otherwise NIFTY may touch to it's support level 4975 shortly. You will also see lot's of up and downs in NIFTY in coming day's it will bounce back again after it touches to it's support levels

Derivatives:

Momentum to continue but market is also cautiousness. The global market will remain the main cue but fresh call build up in the 5200 and 5300 strikes signifies bullish scenario but with some cautiousness

As the concerns from the Dubai debt related issue waned, the market bounced back on Monday 30th November 2009 and crossed the 5000 mark with 90.95 points rise in the S&P CNX Nifty to close at 5032.70. Fresh long position started getting build-up as the market added 3.7 crore shares in total open interest (OI) on this day. The momentum continued throughout the week with excellent signs in the futures and option (F&O) segment, although on Friday the market corrected marginally by 22.80 points to close at 5108.90. For the full week ended 4th December 2009 the market rose 167.15 points with significant addition in Open Interest (OI) in both the stock futures as well as the stock option & index options.
The average volumes in the F&O segment during the week under review were Rs 63422.26 crore. On Friday the volume was higher at Rs 71530.98 crore. The Nifty December OI increased to 2.71 crore shares on Friday. Throughout the week the nifty added 10.33 lakh shares in OI whereas some of the front-line stocks like Reliance Industries, Tata Steel and Tata Motors also added significant OI. For e.g. Reliance added 9.81 lakh shares whereas Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 18.28 lakh shares and 21.43 lakh shares in OI during the week under review. However Unitech, Infosys, DLF, SBI and Bharti shed OI during the week. Reliance OI stood at 1.14 crore shares while Tata Motors and Tata Steel OI stood at 1.43 crore shares and 1.18 crore shares respectively.

Unitech OI on Friday increased by 22.73 lakh shares to take the total OI to 4.92 crore shares, while ICICI Bank and Sail OI increased to 1.27 crore shares and 1.03 crore shares respectively. In the nifty option front there was fresh call buying of 5000 and 5100 strikes while call wrote at the 5200 strikes were covered on Friday thus indicating bullish trend. The 5300 strikes also witnessed fresh buying during Friday. The 4300-strike put witnessed unwinding of OI while 4700 as well as 5000 strike put witnessed addition of OI on Friday.

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 169.16 crore shares, thus gaining by 3.72 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. A major portion of the addition was done by stock futures which added 2.06 crore shares in OI. (See table OI breakup). Even as compared to the end of the previous week there was considerable addition of OI in stock futures and options. In the option front for the week as a whole there was covering of the call option of the strike till 5000, which were wrote earlier simultaneously there was aggressive fresh buying of 5100, 5200 and 5300 strike call options signifying bullish tone. The outstanding OI in these strikes stood at 33.14 lakh, 40.98 lakh and 32.25 lakh share respectively. While on the nifty put side there was aggressive put writing till the 5000 strikes, the 5100, 5200 and 5300 strike puts witnessed put buying thus indicating that there is some cautious move.

Globally the market seems to have quiet well ignored the Dubai crises and quiet rightly so as it was a gross overreaction. Going ahead inference from the F&O activity indicates sustained momentum. The global market will remain the main cue, as there aren't any in the domestic front. Fresh call build up in the 5200 and 5300 strikes signifies bullish scenario although with some cautiousness.


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